<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; text-align:justify”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>海峽導報綜合報道</font></strong><font dir=”auto” style=”color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨主席選舉將於10月18日投票，本次選舉共計有前民代鄭麗文、台北市前市長郝龍斌、民代羅智強、彰化縣前縣長卓伯源和律師蔡志宏等6位候選人。前民代郭正亮爆料，他看過一份國民黨所製作、但不能公開的民調，目前有兩位候選人相當接近，其中「有一個大戶黨員組織強，有一個網絡民調超強」。</font></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9df832614c0d4694a10b4407f525c166~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1760236503&x-signature=DLLybdIFkGaLpKEnST%2F03feRINI%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”768″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/png” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9df832614c0d4694a10b4407f525c166~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1760236503&x-signature=DLLybdIFkGaLpKEnST%2F03feRINI%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/1525d6f8bcf14c3986b9ef567469081f” />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px !important;”> </p>
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<p data-track=”21″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>根據台灣「中時新聞網」報道，藍營流傳的這份最新民調，是針對國民黨員所進行的調查，因此頗具參考價值。而咬得最緊的正是郝龍斌與鄭麗文，兩人差距在誤差範圍內。但由於是經過加權，如果還原原始數據，其實更符合國民黨黨員結構，如此就出現較明顯的落差。</font></p>
<p data-track=”22″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>這次國民黨主席選舉，有效黨員為331410人。選舉結構，過去大致包括軍系、組織票、自主黨員票、海外黨員票等，但國民黨黃復興黨部裁撤後，自主黨員的比例大幅增加。郝龍斌由於得到縣市派系與「頭人」的支持，因此在組織票和聲勢佔上風。</font></p>
<p data-track=”23″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>至於在藍營軍系選票的的部分，雖然有台當局前行政機構負責人郝柏村的因素，郝龍斌得到數十位台軍退將的聯名力挺，似乎擁有絕對優勢。但台軍方系統挺郝、反郝長期以來本就呈分庭抗禮之勢，加上又沒有國民黨黃復興黨部的內聚力，回歸縣市黨部後自主性提高，反倒是藍營基層的黃復興對鄭麗文有相當的認同度。</font></p>
<p data-track=”24″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>日前郝龍斌到高雄眷村座談，現場有基層黨員要求承諾，如果當選國民黨主席，一定要派鄭麗文做“第一實權副主席”，結果被拒。郝龍斌並自爆，日前跟島內某團體座談，該團體要求要拿三個不分區民代才給支持，他也沒答應。但是縣市派係有沒有交換條件？會不會影響國民黨內改革步調與自主黨員的支持，成為郝龍斌開拓選票的絆腳石。</font></p>
<p data-track=”25″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨內人士分析，派系票看起來是最實在的，但票數卻是隨便喊的，能不能開出來都是問號。過去國民黨內選換票聯盟「騙票」的前例，可說是記憶猶新。以過去五成的投票率來預估，相關人士分析，此次大概破7萬是當選的基本門檻，郝龍斌有組織票打底，在台灣北部也有一定的自主黨員，票要衝高必須積極爭取中、南部自主黨員的支持。</font></p>
<p data-track=”26″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>鄭麗文陣營內部操盤者在國民黨內選戰經驗豐富，哪裡找票自是熟門熟路，因此在組織票也有相當斬獲。目前自估掌握約4萬票，但因為和羅智強形象和選票高度重疊，也都訴求世代交替，在自主黨員票部分如果兩人平分秋色，就會對選情產生關鍵性的影響。</font><a href=”https://oyesex.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); 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