<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>台灣第二波「大罷免」開票結果預計今天（23日）傍晚5點半左右出爐。不出意外的話，7席國民黨民應可保住職位，民進黨再次完敗。這也意味著賴清德試圖透過「大罷免」扭轉民意機構「朝小野大」格局，以擺脫藍白聯手製衡的圖謀，將宣告徹底失敗。</span></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/22e9caf0af044152a21d2adeb4979e4a~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756607645&x-signature=mbnMTbSdLEpGRdjc8kZreKK2zpI%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”1024″ img_width=”1312″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/22e9caf0af044152a21d2adeb4979e4a~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756607645&x-signature=mbnMTbSdLEpGRdjc8kZreKK2zpI%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/e87f7ddd1503482291c4d7f255e9430b” />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>第二波大罷免案所涉及的國民黨7席民代，5席集中於台中市與南投縣，包括台中市的江啟臣、楊瓊瓔、顏寬恆；南投縣的馬文君、遊銖。另外兩席分別為新北市的羅明才，新竹縣的林思銘。</font></p>
<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>這波「大罷免」有哪些值得關注的訊號？可從以下三個面向進行觀察：</font></p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>首先，整體投票率多高？民進黨是否再次被「零封」？</font></strong></p>
<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>從2024年當選民代時的得票率看，這次7席民代中，只有南投的遊銖與新竹縣的林思銘得票率在50%以下，其他5席都是以過半得票率且大幅領先對手而當選。換句話說，這些選區選民結果基本上都是藍大於綠，江啟臣、楊瓊瓔、顏寬恆、馬文君、羅明才等人更是當地傳統政治世家，實力雄厚，乃“常勝將軍”，罷免難度很高。</font></p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>根據規定，罷免案通過須同時符合兩項條件：有效「同意票」多於「不同意票」；「同意票」數目達原選區選舉人總數四分之一（25%）以上。從7月26日首波大罷免看，包括台北市王鴻薇、徐巧芯、新北市的葉元之、台中市的羅廷瑋、花蓮縣的傅崐螢等人，「同意票」雖然都超過選舉人數四分之一的罷免門檻，但靠著「不同意票數高於同意票數」而免於被罷免票數。這背後，關鍵就是投票率高，整體投票率將近56%，意味著反罷免的選票成功催出。</font></p>
<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>第二波儘管綠營動員力道減弱，但由於民進黨支持者向來投票積極性高，因此，國民黨要反罷免成功，催高投票率仍是關鍵。當然，由於目前仍維持“藍白合”，加上民眾黨提出的“核三重啟公投案”大力動員，可預期反罷免氣勢可完勝，民進黨可能再次完敗。</font></p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>其次，如果民進黨再次“完敗”，作為台灣地區領導人兼民進黨主席的賴清德，將會作出怎樣的政治回應？他會不會立即宣布「內閣」全面改組？或宣布辭去民進黨主席？</font></strong></p>
<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>第一波大罷免後，林右昌辭去民進黨秘書長以示負責，賴清德卻沒有叫停第二波大罷免，而是硬著頭皮宣布與民間罷免團體“一起走下去”，其頑固立場可見一斑。儘管昨天台經濟部門負責人郭智輝、數位發展部門負責人黃彥男請辭獲準，但這種小幅調整人事的作為並沒有收到止血效果，國民黨與民眾黨繼續施壓，要求「內閣」總辭，民進黨內希望賴辭黨主席的呼聲也高。如果這波大罷免再敗，賴清德面臨新一波壓力，讓卓榮泰「內閣」總辭以及自己辭黨主席，恐怕最少得「二選一」。否則，民調會繼續下探。</font></p>
<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>當然，若辭黨主席，賴清德對民進黨的掌控力將大大減弱，這恐怕是他所不願意的。因此，選擇讓「內閣」總辭、向各派「分權」以減少壓力的可能性更大。事實上，卓榮泰已表態隨時做好下台，以便讓賴清德「有更大人事調整空間」。</font></p>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>再者，兩波「反惡罷」大獲全勝後，對國民黨主席選舉以及2026年「九合一」、2028年「二合一」選舉，將帶來怎樣的影響？</font></strong></p>
<p data-track=”13″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>毫無疑問，台中市長盧秀燕將會是「大罷免」VS「反惡罷」的大贏家，她的政治能量也因此再上一個層次。不管未來盧秀燕自己選不選國民黨主席，其對黨機器的影響與控制力道必然加強；其對2026年及2028年選舉的黨內話語權也增大，並將奠定其「藍營共主」的地位。盧秀燕與民眾黨主席黃國昌搭檔成「盧昌配」參選2028，挑戰賴清德連任，機率將持續走高。</font><a href=”https://oyesex.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); 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