Global Leading Market Research Publisher QYResearch announces the release of its latest report “Ammonia-Diesel Dual-Fuel Engine – Global Market Share and Ranking, Overall Sales and Demand Forecast 2026-2032”. With three decades of industrial analysis and direct engagement with marine OEMs, classification societies, and alternative fuel project developers, I have observed few transitions as compressed and consequential as the one now underway in heavy‑duty propulsion. For shipping executives, strategic planners, and institutional investors, the decisive question is no longer if ammonia‑diesel dual‑fuel engines will achieve commercial scale, but who will capture the learning curve advantage, which technical pathways will dominate, and when the tipping point from pilot projects to fleet‑wide specification arrives.
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Market Size and Growth Trajectory – QYResearch Official Data
According to QYResearch’s latest assessment, the global Ammonia‑Diesel Dual‑Fuel Engine market was valued at US$ 180 million in 2024 and is projected to reach a readjusted size of US$ 1,175 million by 2031, expanding at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 30.3% during the 2025–2031 forecast period . This is not a linear adoption curve. It is a step‑function shift. The market is exiting a five‑year technology validation phase and entering a capacity‑constrained growth phase, where first‑mover engine builders will command premium pricing and shipyards capable of integrating ammonia‑ready designs will capture orderbook share.
Definition and Core Architecture
An Ammonia‑Diesel Dual‑Fuel Engine is an internal combustion prime mover engineered to operate on ammonia (NH₃) as the primary energy source while using diesel as a pilot fuel to initiate and stabilize combustion . Diesel constitutes approximately 5% of the energy input at full load, a ratio that ongoing research continues to compress . The architecture delivers three strategic advantages that conventional marine fuels cannot reconcile:
- Well‑to‑wake CO₂ reduction exceeding 90% when fuelled with green ammonia, positioning operators for compliance with IMO 2050 net‑zero targets and EU FuelEU Maritime requirements ;
- Leverage of existing ammonia logistics—over 120 million tonnes are traded annually via established port infrastructure, avoiding the chicken‑and‑egg dilemma that constrains pure‑hydrogen pathways;
- Fuel flexibility without asset stranding: vessels can switch seamlessly to conventional diesel when ammonia is unavailable, preserving operational optionality during the bunkering infrastructure build‑out.
The Regulatory Catalyst – IACS UR M78 and the Safety Framework Breakthrough
On 10 February 2026, the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) issued the 4th revision of Unified Requirement M78, formally extending its scope to anhydrous ammonia‑fuelled engines . This single document transforms the commercial risk calculus.
UR M78 now mandates:
- Ammonia Release Mitigation Systems (ARMS) and gas‑return/recovery architectures;
- Negative‑pressure crankcase ventilation with continuous ppm‑level monitoring;
- Double‑walled piping and flexible hoses with certified leak‑detection and type‑approval testing;
- Comprehensive safety concept documentation, including detailed schematics, risk analyses, and emergency response protocols .
The revision applies to all engines submitted for type‑approval from 1 July 2027 onward. This 18‑month window has triggered an immediate strategic response: engine builders that secure IACS‑compliant certification by Q3 2027 will own the specification cycle for the next decade. Those that delay will face orderbook exclusion from major shipowners bound by green financing covenants.
Verified Commercial Milestones – Q1 2025 to February 2026
Drawing exclusively on corporate announcements and government‑backed project disclosures, the following commercialization sequence is now verifiable:
- February 2025: MITSUI E&S commenced full‑scale testing of the world’s first commercial‑scale MAN B&W 7S60ME‑LGIA (Liquid Gas Injection Ammonia) two‑stroke engine at its Tamano Works. The 60‑bore unit is destined for a 200,000‑dwt bulk carrier owned by a Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (“K” Line) joint venture. The engine integrates MAN’s High‑Pressure Selective Catalytic Reduction (HPSCR) system, meeting IMO Tier III compliance without exhaust gas recirculation .
- April 2025: WinGD confirmed it has secured 30 firm orders for X‑DF‑A ammonia dual‑fuel engines, comprising 17 × 52‑bore, 3 × 62‑bore, and 10 × 72‑bore units. Deliveries to Chinese and South Korean yards commenced June 2025, with sea‑going experience expected by Q1 2026. Buyers include Exmar, Bocimar, CMB.TECH, AET, and MISC. Test data demonstrate ammonia slip below 10 ppm and nitrous oxide (N₂O) below 3 ppm, effectively neutralizing concerns over secondary greenhouse gas emissions .
- November 2025: Everllence (formerly MAN Energy Solutions) officially launched its ME‑LGIA ammonia engine series at its Copenhagen headquarters, with first yard delivery scheduled for Q1 2026. Pilot projects confirmed include ammonia carriers for Eastern Pacific Shipping, car carriers for Höegh Autoliners, and a Japanese bulk carrier consortium. Over 150,000 collective engineering hours and 800+ test cycles underpin the launch .
- February 2026: Wärtsilä secured its first commercial order for the Wärtsilä 25 Ammonia four‑stroke engine, selected by Skarv Shipping Solutions for a newbuild cargo vessel under construction at China’s Huanghai shipyard. The integrated package includes the complete fuel gas supply system, exhaust after‑treatment, and ammonia‑handling mitigation systems. Deliveries commence Q4 2026 .
Exclusive Industry Insight – The Segmentation Map That Defines Go‑to‑Market Strategy
The common analytical error is to treat “ammonia‑diesel dual‑fuel” as a monolithic product category. QYResearch’s proprietary project‑tracking database reveals three distinct adoption S‑curves segmented by vessel type, engine cycle, and regional regulatory pressure:
1. Two‑stroke / Deep‑sea / Bulk & Tanker (2025–2028)
- Adoption driver: Economies of scale; ammonia storage constraints manageable on large decks; predictable long‑haul routes enable bunkering corridor planning.
- Lead adopters: CMB.TECH, Eastern Pacific Shipping, “K” Line.
- Engine leader: MAN ES / Everllence (first‑mover advantage in LGIA two‑stroke).
- Critical success factor: HPSCR durability and catalyst life under high‑load continuous operation.
2. Four‑stroke / Short‑sea & Special Vessels (2026–2029)
- Adoption driver: Port proximity to ammonia terminals; retrofittability; auxiliary power applications.
- Lead adopters: Skarv Shipping, North Sea Container Line, Yara International.
- Engine leader: Wärtsilä (first Wärtsilä 25 Ammonia delivery 2026).
- Critical success factor: Transient load response and start‑stop cycle robustness.
3. Retrofit / Upgrade (2028–2032)
- Adoption driver: Asset life extension; avoidance of newbuild capital expenditure.
- Enabling technology: WinGD X‑DF‑P (LPG) pathway to ammonia upgrade; modular fuel‑handling skids.
- Critical success factor: Classification society approval for in‑service conversions; shipyard engineering capacity.
Unresolved Engineering Challenges – Where Due Diligence Must Focus
Even the most commercially optimistic assessment must acknowledge three enduring technical constraints:
1. Pilot fuel substitution ratio: Current 5% diesel energy share, while modest, still translates into substantial CO₂ emissions across a large fleet. Laboratory research indicates 3% is achievable; sub‑2% will require fundamental combustion regime innovation, likely via dual‑direct injection or reactivity‑controlled compression ignition (RCCI).
2. N₂O formation pathway: Nitrous oxide possesses a global warming potential 273 times that of CO₂. While WinGD’s sub‑3 ppm achievement is commendable, sustained performance over 25,000+ operating hours remains unverified. Catalyst poisoning and thermal ageing of after‑treatment systems are not yet characterized in real‑world heavy‑fuel blends.
3. Crankcase dilution and corrosion: Ammonia’s solubility in lubricating oil, combined with its chemical reactivity with copper‑bearing bearing materials, mandates re‑qualification of auxiliary systems. At least one major OEM has privately acknowledged extended validation cycles for metallurgy and additive packages.
Strategic Outlook: Not “If” but “Who” and “How Fast”
The Ammonia‑Diesel Dual‑Fuel Engine market has crossed the regulatory Chasm. IACS UR M78 provides the safety architecture; serial production orders provide the manufacturing validation; first‑of‑class sea trials, commencing within weeks, will provide the operational proof.
QYResearch’s 2031 forecast of US$1.175 billion should be interpreted as a conservative baseline. If the following three conditions materialize—(1) green ammonia production scales as projected by DOE Hydrogen Shot and EU REPowerEU; (2) welding and materials challenges resolve within the current R&D cycle; and (3) carbon pricing reaches €150/tCO₂ by 2028—the 2031 market size will approach US$2.1 billion.
For incumbent engine builders, the strategic imperative is capacity pre‑emption and certification velocity. For shipowners, the decision calculus has shifted from “whether to pilot” to “how to sequence fleet renewal.” For institutional investors, the signal is unambiguous: the ammonia‑diesel dual‑fuel platform is no longer a speculative venture—it is the reference architecture for deep‑sea decarbonization through 2040.
The engineering is proven. The orders are booked. The vessels are launching. The market is now a contest of execution.
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