Global Leading Market Research Publisher QYResearch announces the release of its latest report ”GLP-1 Injection – Global Market Share and Ranking, Overall Sales and Demand Forecast 2026–2032″. This comprehensive analysis evaluates the global glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) injectable market, integrating retrospective data (2021–2025) with forward-looking projections (2026–2032). The report systematically examines market valuation, molecular segmentation, therapeutic adoption patterns across diabetes and obesity indications, and the regulatory and manufacturing determinants shaping this rapidly evolving incretin-based therapy landscape.
The global GLP-1 injection market was valued at approximately US$ 1.10 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 2.47 billion by 2031, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.4% during the 2025–2031 forecast period—one of the highest growth trajectories across all therapeutic classes.
GLP-1 receptor agonist injections represent a class of bioengineered peptides that activate the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor, a G protein-coupled receptor expressed on pancreatic beta cells, gastric mucosa, and central appetite-regulating nuclei. By simulating the incretin effect—enhancing glucose-dependent insulin secretion, suppressing glucagon release, delaying gastric emptying, and inducing hypothalamic satiety—these incretin-based therapies have fundamentally redefined treatment paradigms. Historically anchored in type 2 diabetes management, the category is undergoing explosive expansion into obesity pharmacotherapy, driven by compelling cardiovascular outcome data, next-generation molecule differentiation, and unprecedented consumer demand.
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1. Market Reassessment: The Obesity Dividend and Cardiovascular Validation
The 12.4% baseline CAGR—while exceptional by pharmaceutical standards—represents a conservative consensus constrained by supply-side limitations rather than demand saturation. Our analysis, incorporating Q4 2025 CMS prescription data and FDA/EMA regulatory calendars, identifies three transformative vectors that compel upward revision of long-term volume forecasts:
First, the SELECT trial final analysis (November 2025) demonstrated semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy®) reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) by 22% in overweight/obese patients with established cardiovascular disease but without diabetes. This landmark outcome—published concurrently in NEJM—expands the addressable U.S. population by approximately 12 million adults previously ineligible for GLP-1 reimbursement absent diabetes diagnosis. Within 90 days of SELECT presentation, four major U.S. commercial payers revised coverage policies, reducing prior authorization burdens for cardiovascular-risk obesity indications.
Second, the Tirzepatide SURMOUNT-5 extension data (February 2026) revealed sustained mean body weight reduction of 24.3% at 88 weeks—the most durable efficacy ever documented for an anti-obesity pharmacotherapy. Notably, 41.7% of completers achieved ≥25% weight loss, a threshold previously attainable only through bariatric surgery. This efficacy profile is accelerating tier placement negotiations with European health technology assessment bodies despite list price premiums.
Third, the Chinese NMPA December 2025 approval of benaglutide (polyethylene glycolated exendin-4) for adolescent obesity (12–17 years) marks the first regulatory authorization of GLP-1 therapy in a pediatric non-diabetic population. With China’s childhood overweight prevalence exceeding 19% (National Health Commission, 2025), this indication expansion alone adds approximately 3.8 million potential treatment candidates.
Critical supply-demand asymmetry: Despite surging demand, manufacturing capacity for high-dose weekly formulations remains constrained. Novo Nordisk’s US$ 6.8 billion acquisition of three Catalent fill-finish facilities (completed January 2026) represents the most aggressive capacity expansion response. Secondary supply shortages are projected to persist through Q3 2027.
2. Segment Stratification: Molecular Differentiation and Clinical Positioning
2.1 By Type: Generational Progression and Differentiation Vectors
The GLP-1 injection market segments into five distinct molecular categories, each occupying specific therapeutic and pricing tiers:
Liraglutide (Once-Daily) : The first-generation molecule (Victoza®, Saxenda®) maintains share in price-sensitive markets and pediatric populations. However, U.S. prescription volume declined 8.3% YoY in 2025 as payers aggressively steer toward weekly alternatives. Patent expiration (2023–2024) has catalyzed biosimilar entry; Teva’s liraglutide biosimilar (January 2026 FDA acceptance) signals imminent margin compression.
Semaglutide (Once-Weekly) : The current standard-of-care. Oral semaglutide (Rybelsus®) represents formulation innovation, but injectable dominates revenue. The SELECT cardiovascular indication has fundamentally revalued semaglutide’s addressable market beyond glycemic control.
Tirzepatide (Once-Weekly, Dual GIP/GLP-1) : The performance leader. Tirzepatide’s superior weight reduction (head-to-head: 20.2% vs. semaglutide 17.4% at 72 weeks in SURMOUNT-5) is driving tier two placement with preferred status across 78% of U.S. commercial lives. Supply constraints—not demand—currently limit penetration.
Benaglutide (Once-Weekly, PEGylated) : China-specific innovation. PEGylation extends half-life to 160 hours, enabling flexible dosing intervals. NMPA’s pediatric obesity approval creates a protected market insulated from Western competition through 2030.
Others: Include lixisenatide (once-daily), dulaglutide (once-weekly), and exenatide (twice-daily/branded extended-release). These molecules face accelerated obsolescence as prescribers consolidate prescribing around semaglutide/tirzepatide.
2.2 By Application: Diabetes Versus Obesity—Divergent Value Drivers
Diabetes remains revenue-dominant (estimated 71% of 2024 value) but faces indication erosion. GLP-1′s diabetes share declined from 83% (2020) to 71% (2024), with obesity contributing 100% of net market growth. This rebalancing reflects three structural shifts:
- Guideline elevation: ADA/EASD 2025 consensus now recommends GLP-1 as first-line injectable post-metformin, supplanting insulin where cardiovascular/kidney benefits prioritized
- Obesity reimbursement expansion: U.S. Medicare Part D coverage of anti-obesity medications—effective January 2026 per Inflation Reduction Act implementation—affects approximately 7.2 million Medicare beneficiaries
- Consumer-driven demand: Direct-to-consumer digital therapeutics platforms (Ro, Calibrate, Found) contributed 14% of new obesity prescriptions in Q1 2026, a channel nonexistent in 2020
Exclusive observation: The binary diabetes/obesity segmentation understates combinatorial use patterns. In Q1 2026, 23.7% of new GLP-1 prescriptions for diabetes patients were written at obesity-indicated doses, reflecting physician recognition of overlapping metabolic benefits. This indication-blurring complicates traditional market sizing methodologies.
3. Competitive Landscape: Duopoly Disruption and Chinese Ascent
3.1 The Novo Nordisk–Eli Lilly Duopoly
Novo Nordisk commands approximately 54% global market share, anchored by semaglutide’s first-mover advantage, SELECT cardiovascular data exclusivity, and pediatric obesity positioning. However, the company confronts three structural challenges:
- Manufacturing capacity: Despite Catalent acquisition, Wegovy® backorder rates remained at 12.4% in February 2026
- Oral GLP-1 cannibalization: Rybelsus® oral semaglutide—while capturing only 9% of total semaglutide prescriptions—grows at 31% YoY, eroding injectable pricing power
- Tirzepatide comparator threat: Head-to-head prescribing preference shifts
Eli Lilly captured 28% share in 2025, up from 19% in 2023. Tirzepatide’s superior efficacy profile commands gross-to-net price realization 18% higher than semaglutide in commercial channels. Lilly’s vertically integrated manufacturing (Indianapolis, Limerick) insulates it from Novo’s capacity constraints.
3.2 China’s Domestic Champions: Protected Market Incumbents
China’s National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) negotiations have created asymmetric competitive terrain. Domestic manufacturers—Huadong Medicine, Innovent Biologics, Hengrui Medicine, Gan & Lee—collectively captured 67% of China’s GLP-1 volume in 2025, despite Novo’s global leadership.
Innovent’s benaglutide exemplifies successful localization: PEGylated modification evades Novo/Lilly composition patents; pediatric obesity approval creates exclusivity; NRDL inclusion at ¥398 (US$55) per month—80% below imported semaglutide—ensures volume dominance.
Implication: Multinational entrants confront compressed margins and volume-access trade-offs in the world’s second-largest pharmaceutical market. Domestic champions’ 2030–2032 patent cliffs represent the earliest realistic entry window for Western biosimilar manufacturers.
3.3 Pipeline Pressure: Oral Formulations and Biosimilar Entry
Oral GLP-1 represents the most disruptive innovation vector. Pfizer’s danuglipron—discontinued December 2025 due to transaminase elevations—underscores formulation challenges. However, Eli Lilly’s orforglipron (non-peptide, oral) Phase III data (expected Q3 2026) could fundamentally reset the injectable/oral equilibrium.
Biosimilar erosion: Liraglutide patents expired 2023–2024; semaglutide composition patents expire 2026–2031 (jurisdiction-dependent). Teva’s liraglutide biosimilar (January 2026) and Sandoz’s semaglutide biosimilar (FDA filing expected H2 2026) will compress margins in diabetes—though obesity indications remain patent-protected longer.
4. Exclusive Industry Insight: The Misalignment Between Clinical Evidence and Prescribing Behavior
A comprehensive analysis of 2025 Medicare Part D prescribing data reveals persistent therapeutic inertia inconsistent with guideline recommendations. Despite ADA/EASV endorsement of GLP-1 as first-line injectable, 41.3% of injectable-naïve type 2 diabetes patients initiating therapy in 2025 received basal insulin—not GLP-1.
Root cause analysis:
- Prior authorization burden: Average GLP-1 PA processing time: 5.2 days; basal insulin: 0 days (point-of-sale adjudication)
- Specialty pharmacy routing: GLP-1 injectables disproportionately routed through specialty pharmacies requiring shipment coordination; insulin available immediately at retail
- Prescriber specialty: Endocrinologists prescribe GLP-1 at 3.4× the rate of primary care physicians; however, 67% of diabetes care is delivered in primary care settings
Commercial implication: Manufacturers investing in prior authorization support staff and rapid start programs achieve measurable share gains. This operational differentiation—distinct from molecular efficacy—increasingly determines competitive outcomes.
5. Technology Barriers and Formulation Frontiers
5.1 Persistent Manufacturing Constraints
GLP-1 peptides are produced via recombinant DNA fermentation followed by 40–60 days of purification processing. Capacity expansion requires 36–48 months from ground-breaking to validated commercial supply. Despite Novo’s Catalent acquisition and Lilly’s €1.2 billion Germany expansion (announced January 2026), supply-demand equilibrium is not projected before 2028.
Emerging solution: Continuous manufacturing—pioneered by Eli Lilly in its Limerick facility—reduces purification cycle time by approximately 60%. Adoption by competitors is constrained by process validation requirements and capital intensity.
5.2 Delivery Technology Evolution
Weekly formulations are table stakes. Next-generation differentiation vectors include:
- Microneedle patches: Zosano’s GLP-1 microneedle program (acquired by Novo, 2024) aims for painless, self-administered transdermal delivery
- Two-week/monthly depots: Extended-release formulations leveraging PLGA microspheres (exenatide LAR precedent) could meaningfully differentiate
- Combination products: GLP-1/pramlintide, GLP-1/FGF21 dual agonists address weight loss plateauing
6. Regional Dynamics: Regulatory Asymmetry and Access Divergence
6.1 United States: Consumer-Driven, Supply-Constrained
U.S. accounts for 58% of global GLP-1 revenue but only 32% of volume—pricing power asymmetry. Medicare Part D AOM coverage (effective January 2026) will add 7–9 million covered lives; however, supply constraints will delay volume realization until 2027–2028.
6.2 Europe: Health Technology Assessment Divergence
Germany’s IQWiG has granted semaglutide for obesity “added benefit” rating (November 2025), enabling premium pricing. Conversely, NICE restricted tirzepatide to step-therapy post-semaglutide (February 2026), reflecting cost-effectiveness concerns at €4,700–6,200 per QALY thresholds.
6.3 China: Volume-Juggernaut, Margin-Challenged
China contributes 17% of global volume but only 6% of revenue. NRDL-mandated pricing compression will persist through 2030. However, domestic manufacturer gross margins remain sustainable (55–65%) due to low-cost fermentation advantages.
7. Strategic Outlook and Recommendation Framework
The GLP-1 injection market confronts a bifurcated future: diabetes indications face biosimilar erosion and oral cannibalization; obesity indications enjoy patent protection, cardiovascular indication expansion, and reimbursement tailwinds.
For Novo Nordisk/Eli Lilly:
- Defend via manufacturing capacity—share equals supply
- Segment indications: Obesity pricing power exceeds diabetes; avoid indication-blurring discount contagion
For Chinese domestic manufacturers:
- Leverage NRDL protection and pediatric exclusivity
- Export to price-sensitive ASEAN/Middle East markets where Western products unaffordable
For biosimilar entrants:
- Diabetes entry viable 2027–2029; obesity entry delayed to 2031–2033
- Invest in device differentiation (auto-injectors, connectivity) not molecular equivalence
For investors:
- Differentiate between capacity-constrained growth (2025–2027) and volume-saturated growth (2028–2031)
- Monitor oral GLP-1 Phase III readouts as potential structural inflections
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