<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”> <span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>2026年高雄市長選舉進入關鍵衝擊期，藍營候選人柯志恩與綠營潛在參選人賴瑞隆的最新民調支持率同為41%，呈現出「貼身肉搏」的態勢。這一結果不僅打破了綠營長期盤踞高雄的“鐵票神話”，更折射出選戰格局因候選人的策略、綠營的內鬥及民意變遷而發生的深刻變化。</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ddc4a6c37dbd412c80086a95bf84a5c1~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=nkMjsTzmniLDJ%2BqeU542clAEGws%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”509″ img_width=”640″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ddc4a6c37dbd412c80086a95bf84a5c1~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=nkMjsTzmniLDJ%2BqeU542clAEGws%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/442dbc8a5efd4cf885c4e1946f3aecf6″ />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>柯志恩</span></p>
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<p data-track=”2″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>根據TVBS在9月24日公佈的最新民調顯示，柯志恩與賴瑞隆支持率相當，其餘綠營參選人許智傑、邱議瑩、林岱樺則分別落後柯志恩6至13個百分點。這項數據引發了外界的關注，尤其是TVBS作為中間偏藍媒體，其民調是否客觀反映選情？</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/43e61bed724e419989fca17b22eae7cd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=ln32%2FO3jbH99r4ybWA21stCRkY8%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”420″ img_width=”500″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/43e61bed724e419989fca17b22eae7cd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=ln32%2FO3jbH99r4ybWA21stCRkY8%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/43e61bed724e419989fca17b22eae7cd” />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>邱議瑩</span></p>
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<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>首先要知道柯志恩支持率攀升的關鍵，在於其精準鎖定了高雄市政的痛點，尤其是近期猛攻「美濃盜採砂石案」。事件涉及不法集團盜採砂石回填營建廢棄物，輿論將此事歸咎於高雄市政府監管失職。柯志恩對此透過案件追蹤、現場勘驗及民眾訪談，欲查明管理上的漏洞，此舉成功獲得了市民的好感。其團隊更將此案與綠營長期執政的「黑金共構」形象掛鉤，精準打擊綠營在高雄的基本盤。</span></p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>反觀賴瑞隆雖獲「新潮流系」力挺，但目前綠營內部暗流湧動，任何優勢都有可能轉瞬即逝，因此誰都不敢輕舉妄動。對此，前「民代」郭正亮指出，賴清德雖然看中了賴瑞隆，但如果「英系」、「扁系」等其他派系支持者因不滿提名結果而消極輔選，恐將導致動員力分散。例如，許智傑因捲入「大罷免」爭議導致其支持率持續下滑，邱議瑩則因「問政風格」爭議難以突破客家票源，林岱樺雖然募款能力提出，但「非菊地」身分限制其整合空間。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/945ceb9513db4496bbd5cc1f38392e67~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=j5ewQqyGYX0Bc6trTvI%2BZOAcAaY%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”551″ img_width=”870″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/945ceb9513db4496bbd5cc1f38392e67~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=j5ewQqyGYX0Bc6trTvI%2BZOAcAaY%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/945ceb9513db4496bbd5cc1f38392e67″ />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>賴瑞隆</span></p>
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<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>值得注意的是，儘管潘孟安未納入目前民調中來，但其動向可能會成為選戰的轉捩點。為什麼會這麼說呢？</span></p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>要知道，潘孟安作為賴清德的嫡系，如果此時宣布參選的話，將會整合整個綠營的資源從而形成「全台級」選戰規模。不過，柯志恩團隊對此保持冷靜，認為“綠營內鬥反而會分散火力”，而是專注於治水、交通、青年就業等熱點議題。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5e1913a4fcf84fbfa9a726f04a292327~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=6MhpmxO57xcKeYiBn%2FCKmwea860%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”400″ img_width=”600″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5e1913a4fcf84fbfa9a726f04a292327~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1759400100&x-signature=6MhpmxO57xcKeYiBn%2FCKmwea860%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5e1913a4fcf84fbfa9a726f04a292327″ />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>潘孟安</span></p>
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<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>最後總結一下，高雄市長選舉不僅是藍綠對抗，更是選民對「抗韓敘事」疲勞後的無奈之舉。對於柯志恩來講“成也綠營，敗也綠營”，如果賴清德後續沒有想出什麼好法子，那麼“敗選”也是板上釘釘了。</span><a href=”https://yeeseex.com/”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span style=”color:#ff0000″><span style=”font-family:宋体”>夜色春藥網官網</span></span></span></span></a> <a href=”https://yeeseex.com/shop/”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span style=”color:#ff0000″><span 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