美智庫再進行兵棋推演，台統一方案或出乎意料：中國或啟天津模式

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<strong style=”font-weight:700; text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>美國智庫再次進行台海兵棋推演，與以往的情況有些情況不同，具體內容是什麼？而在這個時候，曹興誠突然喊話大陸各省做一件事，凸顯了他已經陷入了&ldquo;癲狂&rdquo;，為什麼這麼說？而對兩岸統一，有人表示可以啟動「天津模式」來解決問題，依據是什麼？</span></span></span></span></strong></p>

<p data-track=”19″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>據日本共同社報道稱，美國華府智庫「CSIS」日前進行了一次台海兵棋推演，設定背景是中國大陸實施「鎖台」策略後，美軍與解放軍在台島週邊海域發生小規模軍事衝突。根據CSIS的報告，他們認為美軍會付出2.1萬人的傷亡，以及數百架戰機和數十艘艦艇的損失，而解放軍傷亡1.3萬，也會有許多艦艇被摧毀。但美國智庫的這份報告存在一個問題，就是解放軍的預警機水準遠強於美軍，對後者的一舉一動瞭如指掌。而美軍要干涉台海，必須從日韓、關島、本土調動兵力，等他們靠近台海時，解放軍早就準備就緒，必將迎頭痛擊。</span></p>

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<p data-track=”15″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>然而，島內的「台獨」分子仍看不清形勢，甚至對大陸「提條件」。頑固&ldquo;台獨&rdquo;分子曹興誠叫囂：&ldquo;兩岸統一'違反人權'，然而這次沒有拿回'立法機構'控制權，否則就宣布'支持統一言論違法'&rdquo;，還喊話大陸&ldquo;要把統一言論去除&rdquo;。可以說，曹興誠在搞「台獨」方面已經魔怔，根本看不清現在的局勢，完全就是自說自話，而他的下場只有一個，那就是被全體中國人審判！</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d6755477d8434ea597894c9c2b680d58~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1755402011&amp;x-signature=c0Y1SrJ%2FFbjAQu3sCTkGgwMgp3k%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”407″ img_width=”661″ mime_type=”image/png” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d6755477d8434ea597894c9c2b680d58~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1755402011&amp;x-signature=c0Y1SrJ%2FFbjAQu3sCTkGgwMgp3k%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d6755477d8434ea597894c9c2b680d58″ />
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<p data-track=”16″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>「台獨」分子如此膨脹，而美日等域外勢力也屢次在台海問題上對華挑釁，中國大陸如何應對？有觀點認為，中國大陸可以啟動&ldquo;天津模式&rdquo;，來解決台海問題。 1949年的平津戰役，最終以傅作義和平起義結束。不過在很長一段時間，傅作義覺得自己有幾十萬部隊，且北平與天津互為犄角，解放軍不會強攻。然而，解放軍只花了不到30小時，就攻克了天津，這讓傅作義放棄了幻想，選擇了和平起義。現在，「天津模式」仍能適用於台海，目標則是琉球群島的美軍基地。如果中國大陸繞開台島，直接與美國進行博弈，川普政府有膽量「硬碰硬」嗎？而且在這個時候，日媒透露解放軍殲20戰機穿越對馬海峽，但日本自衛隊和駐日美軍完全沒有反應，這也顯示美國也沒有能力與中國大陸「硬碰硬」。</span><a href=”https://lion19.com/” 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<p data-track=”17″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:20px;margin-right:0px;margin-left:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;margin-bottom:0px !important;”><span style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>最後想說的是，曹興誠能說出這種言論，主要原因是島內不少人存在所謂的&ldquo;台島主體性&rdquo;或&ldquo;台島意識&rdquo;，這也是民進黨愚弄島內民眾的主要手段，具體內容是&ldquo;你生在台島，長在台島，吃台島的飯，就要有以台島為中心的思維方式&rdquo;。在這種模式下，不少島內民眾&ldquo;自我膨脹&rdquo;，對島外的情況完全不了解，還覺得情況很好，這就是&ldquo;井蛙現象&rdquo;。但現在，許多島內民眾已經破開了&ldquo;資訊繭房&rdquo;，了解到了大陸的真實情況，擺脫了所謂的&ldquo;台島主體性&rdquo;。在這種情況下，賴清德在島上的不滿意率已經暴漲10個百分點，失去了200萬人的支持。而且，曹興誠也與另一個「台獨」分子遊盈隆發生衝突，兩人還準備對簿公堂，局勢已經很明朗了。</span></p>