<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>大罷免第一波投票完敗，民進黨與罷免團體的氣勢都沒了。例如，曹興誠直接宣布要將823罷免主導權交給民進黨。不過，賴清德卻依舊不死心，下令民進黨在8月23日進行精準罷免，試圖扳回一城。對此，陳水扁前辦公室主任、台灣選情分析專家陳淞山表示，第二波罷免投票還是7比0，民進黨不會有任何斬獲！即使是選得票率不高的林思銘，也能夠順利過關。</span></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/d0dd1ea5c00d41bfaf70efde092d6088~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=1eHP8hX3Z5n%2BMWejZIwz65aF1mk%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”753″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/d0dd1ea5c00d41bfaf70efde092d6088~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=1eHP8hX3Z5n%2BMWejZIwz65aF1mk%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/e0e273aa87c94906bc6bad47f692c84c” />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>陳淞山</font></p>
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<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>陳淞山認為，賴清德之所以堅持推動第二輪罷免投票，主要原因有兩個。第一個，賴清德想給罷免團體交代。罷免團體中80%都是民進黨的支持者，賴清德要將這些人凝聚在一起。第二個，賴清德用了一個緩兵之計，避免民進黨派內鬥，在支持率下降的情況下不至全面崩盤。用陳淞山的說法，賴清德採取了「攘外必先安內」的手段。</font></p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>在2024年「立委」選舉中，羅明才、江啟臣、顏寬恆、楊瓊櫻、馬文君與遊銖都以超過50%的得票率當選。新竹縣的林思銘得票率為44.82%，低於時代力量與民進黨兩位候選人之和。但這次大罷免中，林思銘也很安全，關鍵就在於大環境對民進黨非常不利，台灣的主流民意認為大罷免缺乏正當性，大部分人持不支持的態度。葉元之與黃建賓都順利過關了，更何況是林思銘？</font></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/35d326c6d43f487e8d28e8d485484b46~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=4rIK3djzNnlsuydyAQsBL7jOk9M%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”768″ img_width=”1023″ mime_type=”image/png” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/35d326c6d43f487e8d28e8d485484b46~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=4rIK3djzNnlsuydyAQsBL7jOk9M%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/35d326c6d43f487e8d28e8d485484b46″ />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>林思銘</font></p>
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<h1 class=”pgc-h-arrow-right” data-track=”10″ style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.056em; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; line-height: 1.579; position: relative; font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>日本學者小笠原欣幸也直言，2026年縣市長選舉與2028年台灣地區領導人選舉對民進黨不利</font></h1>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>日本學者小笠原欣幸準備預測了2016、2018、2020、2022與2024台灣地區五次選舉結果，被台灣媒體稱為「選舉之神」。針對國民黨在726大罷免首輪投票完勝，小笠原欣幸認為，這反映的不僅是民進黨戰術出現了問題，更是一種結構性的失望。 2016年，蔡英文高喊「公平正義」贏得選舉，但在民進黨執政八年後依舊遙不可及，台灣青年族群對民進黨信任逐漸流失。</font></p>
<p data-track=”16″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>在2020年台灣地區領導人選舉中，蔡英文以57%的得票率取得了壓倒性勝利。但到了2022年的縣市長選舉，民進黨卻以慘敗收場。當時小笠原欣幸就認為，「抗中保台」在台灣縣市長選舉中號召力不如以往。在2024年台灣地區領導人選舉中，柯文哲強烈批評「抗中保台」的口號淪為民進黨鞏固權力的工具，成功吸引了大量年輕選民與中間選民的支持，導致賴清德僅以40%的得票率當選。</font></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p9-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7325127e23f84938b284914199934c61~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=w9Y4f0mqNdkRNIMhJR0HbFyHEdk%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”768″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p9-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7325127e23f84938b284914199934c61~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1755412737&x-signature=w9Y4f0mqNdkRNIMhJR0HbFyHEdk%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7325127e23f84938b284914199934c61″ />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative; text-align: center; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>小笠原欣幸</font></p>
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<p data-track=”22″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>小笠原欣幸分析稱，台灣年輕人面對經濟狀況不佳的壓力，對於民進黨的失望與日俱增。在這種情況之下，民進黨結構性地失去台灣年輕民眾的支持，在2026年縣市長選舉與2028年台灣地區領導人選舉中面對的情況非常糟糕。言下之意，小笠原欣幸認為民進黨靠著「抗中保台」打贏選舉的好日子到頭了，如果繼續執政不利，將會在接下來兩場選舉中慘敗！</font><a href=”https://lion19.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”> </span><a href=”https://lion19.com/product-category/outwoman/22″ style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>增慾按摩油</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”> </span><a href=”https://lion19.com/product-category/man/1″ style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>增慾催情藥</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”> </span><a href=”https://lion19.com/product-category/outman/11″ style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>口交潤滑液</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; 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background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>乳頭刺激液</span></a></p>
