<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>在遭遇接連挫敗後，賴清德當局的支持率和民進黨黨內士氣持續低迷。日前，台灣民間團體「草根影響力文教基金會」公佈民調顯示，對賴當局施政不滿意的民眾高達52%，僅30%滿意；對於賴當局與美國關稅談判的表現，不滿意民眾為59%，滿意只有18%。調查也顯示，54%的台灣民眾對島上經濟發展前景感到悲觀。</span></p>
<p><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/0706c67f0b454eeb8de8adb2e9d8922b~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1758254795&x-signature=MmegDpP9k8b3U8fYM8wveaklAKo%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”308″ img_width=”500″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/0706c67f0b454eeb8de8adb2e9d8922b~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1758254795&x-signature=MmegDpP9k8b3U8fYM8wveaklAKo%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/53cbe1c3bba4376f063e102ab819269b” /></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>對此，慣會推諉塞責的賴清德又開始賣弄文字遊戲，企圖給自己的執政無能甩鍋。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>據“中時新聞網”等台灣媒體報道，日前賴清德在宴請民進黨民代時，提到對民進黨執政造成衝擊的三隻“黑天鵝”，分別是美對台加徵“對等關稅”、“大罷免”失敗以及風災衝擊。賴的意思是說，因為這三個因素，才造成民進黨當局目前內外交困的境地，並不是因為自己的無能。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>「黑天鵝」事件，指的是突發性強、難以預測且影響巨大的小機率事件，其發生會顛覆既有經驗認知。與之相對的「灰犀牛」事件，則是指顯而易見的、高機率發生的風險，因長期被忽視或應對不足而最終演變為重大危機。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>那麼，賴清德想甩鍋“黑天鵝”，有人買單嗎？</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>前台北市副市長李永萍質疑，「大罷免」符合「黑天鵝」的定義嗎？明明是賴清德說民進黨要和罷團同行，動員基層組織發動的，說是「黑天鵝」好不好笑，有沒有一點臉啊！她認為，只能說明賴清德要否認現在的狀態。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨民代賴士葆也表示，賴清德的個性本來就是強硬到底，用「黑天鵝」這種「發生機率極低、且難以預料」的譬喻來談關稅、罷免、風災根本是推卸責任。他分析，賴清德絲毫未提與「在野黨」合作，卓榮泰都沒被撤換，一定還是要戰鬥到底。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>就連民進黨黨內也鮮有支持者。民進黨前民代林濁水批評說，「大罷免」結果對民進黨的衝擊是比「黑天鵝」更可怕的「灰犀牛」暴走造成的，「可驚的是『灰犀牛』明明就在眼前，民進黨上上下下都視而不見」。民眾黨中央委員陳世軒對此表示，林濁水身為民進黨前輩，對賴清德的評論相當到位，不只是賴，如今整個民進黨都陷入鴕鳥心態，把頭埋在土裡。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>剛因「大罷免」失敗辭去民進黨團幹事長的吳思瑤也稱，民進黨需要檢視「施政」「行政」「立法」之間到底出了什麼問題，不要跟民意斷鍊。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>台灣《中國時報》評論指出，賴清德千叮萬囑要提防的“黑天鵝”，其實是他本人。只是，在醬缸橫行的民進黨，已經沒人敢說出真相，只能配合演出。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>賴清德的「黑天鵝」說，不僅有違客觀現實，更違背了各界民眾的認知。賴講話內容曝光後，許多台灣網友湧入相關新聞下方留言，表達憤怒不滿。有網友質疑，「這不是為了明年的選舉所演的戲？」「民生經濟、教育治安、廉價平穩供電，這些不是問題嗎？」。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>還有人嘲諷說，「什麼時候恢復十講？我想笑」「結果總結四個大字，不是宏圖大展喔哦，是束手無策！」「功力越來越好了！除了青鳥會飛出來一招，還練就了'黑天鵝'，下一招是什麼鳥獸啊？」。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>還有人一語道破：「關稅、大罷免結果及風災只是顯示他們爛的事實。其實就真的很爛，只是這三件事讓你們無法遮醜而已」。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>在先前「大罷免」的投票中，台灣民眾已經用手中選票告誡賴清德，為一己一黨私利與廣大民眾為敵，最終必遭唾棄。若賴清德仍不思己過、不知悔改，必將進一步自食惡果。</font><a href=”https://lion19.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); 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