<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> </p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9296ccba87fe48a48aadd4a8b26f43a8~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1760508834&x-signature=DpYC5Sm1IC9kdtM8X5X6YAkWpz0%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”1370″ img_width=”1280″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9296ccba87fe48a48aadd4a8b26f43a8~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1760508834&x-signature=DpYC5Sm1IC9kdtM8X5X6YAkWpz0%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/0bd018e7d63c4260bd30424b7fdb646f” />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px !important;”> </p>
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<p data-track=”18″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>2026「九合一」選舉時間，藍綠白三大陣營陸續進入備戰狀態，而民進黨過去絕對優勢的南部縣市長選舉是否翻轉變藍天引發關注，其中多家媒體上個月公佈的台南市長初選民調，民進黨民代陳亭妃目前均勝過國民黨民代謝龍介，但「美島電子報」董事長吳子嘉分析後直言，2026地方選舉結果將受風災的災情所影響，而綠營目前在台南、高雄的情況都不好，2026年議員席次恐因此減少。</font></p>
<p data-track=”17″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>吳子嘉在節目上提到，「美麗島電子報」公佈的9月民調，民進黨的負面評價達52.1％，也就是100人就有52人討厭民進黨，而且這個現像在南部的情況更嚴重，像台南、高雄、屏東，他認為風災影響最大。</font></p>
<p data-track=”16″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>吳子嘉指出，在南部風災期間，民進黨正在搞大罷免，沒有人去處理風災，結果事情就這樣拖了1、2個月都沒處理，整個評價非常糟糕，所以高雄、台南的情況都不好，當然這就對2026年選情不利。</font></p>
<p data-track=”15″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>吳子嘉認為，縣市長選舉翻盤的困難度比較高，他也對此稍作保留，可是民調不好，民進黨議員的席位恐會減少。另談到台南市長選舉，他表示，台南在民進黨較敏感的區域，初選這關林俊憲民調被拉下來的理由，是因為被賴清德的民調拖累。</font></p>
<p data-track=”14″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>吳子嘉指出，林俊憲本身民調可能輸陳亭妃，但是不至於輸那麼多。輸那麼多的理由，是因為他是賴清德的子弟兵，所以被賴清德拖垮，但若賴清德民調走揚，林俊憲也有機會上升。他直言，台南選戰不是陳亭妃跟林俊憲在打，我認為，根本就是賴清德跟陳亭妃2個人對打！是賴清德跟陳亭妃的PK，若賴清德輸掉台南，民進黨主席這個位置會很難做，所以賴清德面臨的挑戰都還不是外部的挑戰。</font><a href=”https://lion19.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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