<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>台灣聯合新聞網8月9日發表台灣中華經濟與金融協會副秘書長曾志超的文章《半導體關稅短多長空？ ！ 》，文章認為，美國總統川普日前宣布，將對所有輸美半導體產品開徵高達100%關稅。但如果有在美國建廠，或是承諾在美國建廠，就不會被課稅。消息一出，多數人似乎都以正面解讀，台股大漲。本文淺見，短期對台積電或許是利多，但長期觀之，對台灣經濟的負面衝擊恐將逐一浮現。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>不可否認，從川普發布的半導體關稅豁免而言，對已經在美國設廠的台積電，終於可以鬆一口氣，輸美晶片應該都可以取得關稅豁免權。然而，擁有先進製程壟斷地位的台積電，原本就無須擔憂加徵高關稅的問題，應該都可以將關稅成本轉嫁給客戶。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>除台積電外，台灣地區還有很多半導體廠，多屬較低階的成熟流程，現在已經處於殺價競爭的態勢，赴美投資的可能性不高，加徵100%關稅，將使成本驟增，相關訂單有流失風險。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>台「國發會」負責人劉鏡清赴台當局立法機構備詢時表示，台灣地區半導體業者有三種模式在進行，包括自建廠、併購美廠及與美國業者合作。其中劉點名聯電與英特爾的合作案，屬於第三種模式，也可獲得豁免權。但查閱全球各大媒體報道，完全無此說法，恐怕是劉鏡清個人認知，自行擴大川普的豁免範圍。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>美國商務部已啟動「232條款」調查，對像不僅是半導體本身，還包含相關產業，以判斷半導體、半導體製造設備及其延伸產品對美國國家安全的影響。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>川普並未提到此點。本文判斷有很大的可能，半導體相關產業也會納入加徵關稅的範圍。由於此為台灣地區出口至美國的主力產品，影響也會較大。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>目前已經有許多大型科技企業宣布將在美國投資，部分廠商已進行購地或建廠，以規避高額關稅。然而台灣地區企業以中小企業為主，這些公司資金有限、人力單薄，無力赴美設廠，將是最大受害者。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>大廠紛紛赴美投資，為數眾多的上下游供應鏈，也將被迫前往美國設廠，這些關鍵零件撐起台灣地區科技產業的一片天。當供應鏈大舉外移，將會傷害台灣地區的科技競爭力，並降低產業的影響力。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>這次產業關稅，僅有川普口頭說明，豁免標準、課稅產品範圍、課稅時間表都不明確，加上川普善變的個性，沒人知道何時又會改變。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>綜上分析，市場似乎低估了許多潛在的風險。盼台方能盡快就「232條款」的部分跟美國作進一步談判，以排除相關風險。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>日本藤素</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; 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