「8·23」第二輪罷免投票倒數計時，島上關注中間選民動向

<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>8月23日，島內將舉行第二輪針對國民黨7席「立委」的罷免投票，分別涉及台中市的顏寬恆、楊瓊瓔、江啟臣，南投縣的馬文君、遊頤，以及新北市的羅明才與新竹縣的林思銘。連日來，國民黨重要人物紛紛出馬反罷免。島內輿論認為，從&ldquo;大罷免&rdquo;第一輪到第二輪來看，不少中間選民對民進黨&ldquo;不再沉默&rdquo;，用選票表達了對台當局的不滿。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨連日奔波反罷</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>根據台灣聯合新聞網報道，台中市長盧秀燕作為&ldquo;藍營一姐&rdquo;，22日請假一天，連跑4場車隊掃街。報道稱，依計畫盧秀燕22日上午陪同顏寬恆參與反罷免活動，中午到南投縣支持「立委」馬文君，下午、晚上再回到台中陪江啟臣、楊瓊瓔的車隊。先前在21日傍晚，盧秀燕陪同「立委」羅明才進行拉票活動。她批評賴清德上台以來執政無能，每天忙著政治鬥爭，不好好處理經濟、關稅及救災問題，現在人民最大的心願是希望「行政院」大幅、全面性改組。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>同一天，台「立法院長」韓國瑜前往台中東勢區，陪同「立法院副院長」江啟臣車隊掃街反惡罷，痛批民進黨發動「大罷免」。韓國瑜連日四處奔波為黨內&ldquo;立委&rdquo;月台，20日，他陪同&ldquo;立委&rdquo;楊瓊瓔到神岡區宣傳反罷免，他說，這場罷免&ldquo;不公平、不正義、不正當&rdquo;，希望大家用選票守護民主、守護優質&ldquo;立委&rdquo;。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>不少在7月26日挺過罷免的國民黨「立委」也全力投入8月23日的反罷免。根據台灣「中央社」21日報道，新竹「立委」林思銘20日在國民黨「立委」羅智強的陪同下，在竹東市區展開掃街。羅智強說，林思銘做事認真，民生法案都衝第一，期盼紮實認真的林思銘能為新竹做更多服務與貢獻，呼籲民眾投不同意罷免。台灣《聯合報》稱，隨著罷免進入最後關鍵時刻，雙方陣營火力全開，挺過「7&middot;26」罷免的「立委」鄭正鶴等人，都出席「挺公投反惡罷」活動，除了呼籲「公投」之外，也為林思銘站台。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>民進黨的&ldquo;五大招&rdquo;</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>20日，國民黨舉行記者會揭露民進黨「五大奧步（花招）」。國民黨發言人楊智伃表示，&ldquo;奧步&rdquo;首先是&ldquo;抹黑玩不膩，連造謠都能翻車&rdquo;，綠營在網絡上不斷散播不實信息，只要能讓造勢成功，就會製造自導自演的文宣，僱用假冒的&ldquo;走路工&rdquo;（指違規街頭支持者），卻被僱用打臉。其次是&ldquo;羞辱選民智商&rdquo;，罷免團體仿照國民黨文宣，故意製作內容相反的宣傳圖。第三是&ldquo;自導自演、製造衝突&rdquo;，罷免團體情緒激動地刻意製造衝突&ldquo;碰瓷&rdquo;，惡劣至極。第四是&ldquo;消費病情、泯滅人性&rdquo;，比如國民黨&ldquo;立委&rdquo;遊銖長期受惡罷騷擾不堪負荷，凌晨2時多被送急診，罷免團體居然惡劣地用其躺在病床的圖片，要大家同意罷免。第五則為&ldquo;土匪行徑，違法搶奪布條&rdquo;，例如刻意拆除國民黨&ldquo;立委&rdquo;的反罷免橫幅，&ldquo;巧合&rdquo;地換上罷免團體的橫幅。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>楊智伃同時表示，&ldquo;如果上一次投票沒教會賴清德停止惡鬥，這次投票就要讓他刻骨銘心&rdquo;，呼籲全民不要民進黨操弄鬥爭的台灣，為了追求穩定的能源，希望大家投下&ldquo;不同意&rdquo;罷免票與&ldquo;同意&rdquo;核電延役的&ldquo;公投&rdquo;票。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>台媒注意到，由於23日當天還有「重啟核三」案，近期有罷免團體製作宣傳圖，將「挺藍營立委」與「投同意」聯結，造成混淆。國民黨「立法院」黨團書記長王鴻薇20日表示，這些團體涉嫌違法製作詐騙宣傳圖，以詐騙文宣誤導民眾投下同意罷免票。她說，中部多名被罷免&ldquo;立委&rdquo;成為攻擊對象，以顏寬恆為例，民進黨的宣傳圖上寫著&ldquo;8&middot;23挺寬恆，反惡罷，好立委，投同意&rdquo;，明顯混淆、誘使支持者在罷免案投下同意票。國民黨黨團副書記陳玉珍警告，若罷免團體24小時內不更正，將起訴到底。依島內規定，意圖使被罷免人罷免案通過或否決者，以圖畫散佈不實訊息，處5年以下有期徒刑。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>中間選民不再沉默</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>英國廣播公司（BBC）中文網20日引述台北大學公共行政與政策學系教授劉嘉薇的分析稱，罷免方經歷上次一席都未成功的挫敗後，普遍陷入沮喪情緒，內部也產生不少檢討聲音；上次結果也使幾名罷免團體頭目接連退出，包括罷免領銜人、曹聯創辦聲音東海大學政治系教授張峻豪稱，在知名頭目和金主退出後，罷免團體的選舉資源不如先前充足，而且外界普遍預測這次選舉可能還是零席被罷免，罷免方評估勝負對於改變&ldquo;立法院&rdquo;席位影響不大，選情也就隨之降溫。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>不過，國民黨主席朱立倫20日提醒說，如果大家在「7&middot;26」罷免投票後鬆懈、認為剩下7席很穩，「這樣其實非常危險」。他表示，對於8月23日第二輪罷免投票，全黨仍要力拼到底。朱立倫呼籲國民黨黨員不能鬆懈，「8&middot;23」每一席都要守住。他還稱，&ldquo;8&middot;23&rdquo;還有一項最重要的&ldquo;核三延役公投&rdquo;，這是對科學、理性、經濟、安全非常關鍵的投票。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>在8月23日將舉行的第二輪罷免投票中，沉默的多數選民動向備受矚目。 「台灣民調基金會」日前發布的民調顯示，在台灣人政黨支持傾向中，高達三成為中間選民。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>對於首輪「大罷免」全員過關的現象，BBC中文網稱，不少分析將其歸因於「沉默螺旋」效應，許多反對罷免的選民在當局輿論壓力下噤聲，導致表面輿論脫離實際民意，最終產生出人意料的投票結果。美國得州州立大學政治系副教授翁履中稱，罷免方為了爭取曝光度和流量，過度操作仇恨情緒，使中間選民反感，「促使沉默多數想要採取行動回應」。前「立委」郭正亮分析稱，「7&middot;26大罷免」民進黨慘敗後，人們會認為賴清德情報失靈，掌握不住局面。他稱，中間選民以前會害怕某些力量的&ldquo;威懾&rdquo;，&ldquo;可是現在整個威懾不見了&rdquo;，未來將更敢說話。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>「美麗島電子報」董事長吳子嘉20日撰文稱，「7&middot;26」的「大罷免」大失敗，在「8&middot;23」恐將再度重演。當局六神無主，亂象頻傳，卻對民意向背視而不見，其治台的核心問題已不在個別「閣員」的失能或側翼失控，而是整體戰略早已走偏。文章稱，「若錯誤戰略不改，民進黨不必等在野革新，就會先自我崩壞」。台灣中時新聞網稱，多名政治觀察家分析，若最終罷免案全敗，將是對民進黨明確警訊。台大教授左正東更是警告說，若民進黨不及時調整方向，恐怕還有更大危機在前方，「請拭目以待」。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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