<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>直新聞：劉先生，美參議院在剛通過的2026財年《國防授權法案》中，「強烈建議」美國國防部長在適當情況下，邀請台灣海軍參與「環太平洋」軍演。對此，您作何解讀？</span></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>深圳衛視直新聞特約評論員劉和平：確實，跟過往僅僅是輕描淡寫地“建議”不同，美國會參議院在剛剛通過的2026財年《國防授權法案》中，不僅“強烈建議”美國國防部長在適當情況下，邀請台灣海軍參與“環太平洋”軍演，甚至還明確要求，“如果國防部長在不邀請，須通知國會和理由說明”。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>由於這是一份由參眾兩院共同通過的法律，再加上本次《國防授權法案》中的措辭出現了明顯的升級，由“建議”升級為了“強烈建議”，因此賴清德當局普遍預計，明年台軍參加“環太軍演”，將會是板上釘釘的事情。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>然而我的看法是，川普政府絕對不敢邀請台軍參與“環太軍演”，賴清德當局注定又會空歡喜一場，大家不要被美國國會的措辭給嚇到了。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>我們先來看事實，美國國會在《國防授權法案》建議邀請台軍參加“環太軍演”，這件事情始於2017年，然而過去八年多以來，無論是特朗普執政還是拜登執政，都不約而同地選擇了“公然違法”，不僅沒有邀請台灣方面參與“環太軍演”，甚至連一個觀察員的身份都沒有給。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>這背後的原因非常簡單，美方若邀請台軍參與“環太軍演”，就等於公然並且正式突破了中美建交三個聯合公報，不僅越過了中美關係與台海局勢的紅線，而且極有可能會被中國大陸定性為“台海局勢的突變”，甚至因此而啟動《反分裂國家法》。所以，無論是川普還是拜登，都不敢去捅這個馬蜂窩。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>而這種現象，也就再度印證了我近來所做的一個判斷，那就是，美國在台灣問題上只會玩陰的不會來明的，只會有私底下的實質層面的軍事合作，不會有公開的製度與法律層面的突破。也就是私底下什麼苟且的事情都可以做，但公開的事情絕對不會做。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>直新聞：</font></strong><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>美參議院在剛通過的2026財年《國防授權法案》中，也要求川普政府撥款10億美元用於所謂的「台灣安全合作倡議」。對此，</font><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>您</font></strong><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>又怎麼看？</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>深圳衛視直新聞特約評論員劉和平：</font></strong><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>表面上看來，美國國會通過的2026年度《國防授權法案》，不僅將所謂「台灣安全合作倡議」的援助金額上調到了10億美元，比起2025年援助的3億美元，增加了三倍還多，而且還進一步擴大了援助經費的使用範圍，但是我認為，即使這10億美元真的給到位了，它對於提升台灣軍力的作用，也只是杯水車薪毫無意義，根本扭轉不了兩岸軍力正日益失衡的現狀。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>更何況我認為，即使是區區10億美元的援助，還極有可能是口惠而實不至，是在為台灣畫大餅。我們來看一組數據，美國國會在年度《國防授權法》中提出要對台灣進行無償軍事援助，是從拜登政府執政的2021年開始的。 2022年美國國會通過的《國防授權法案》，更是明確要求美國政府必須要在2023年至2027年的5年間，對台灣提供100億美元的「無償軍事援助」。然而最終的結果是，2021年美國無償援助了台灣0.75億美元，2022年是2.14億美元，2023年是1.86億美元，2024年為0.96億美元。說得不好聽一點，這點錢連打髮叫花子都不夠。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>那麼曾經揚言要不惜代價軍事介入台海局勢的拜登尚且如此，川普又會如何呢？我們知道，出身於商人的川普，是只能他佔別人便宜絕對不會讓別人佔他便宜的鐵公雞。這也意味著，未來只能是川普對台灣敲骨吸髓，相反賴清德當局要想從川普身上掏出錢來，勢必會比登天還要困難。我的這個判斷，有幾組數據可以佐證，一是截至目前為止，在美對台軍售中，尚有高達215億美元的軍售訂單沒有完成，也就是台灣已經付了錢，而美國卻沒有依據合約交付武器的錢。不排除，這筆錢最終會打了水漂；二是在剛剛落幕的美台關稅戰當中，川普已經從台灣身上敲詐了1000億美元的所謂投資款；三是川普政府已經明確要求賴清德當局，必須要將台灣的國防開支提升到佔GDP10%的水平。如果依照這個標準，台灣將成為全世界軍費開支水準最高的地區。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>從中我們可以看出，理想很豐滿，現實很骨感。美國國會在《國防授權法》中通過的對台援助金額，只不過是用來哄騙台灣的一顆糖。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>直新聞：那您認為，在川普的主政期間，接下來台灣在安全上面臨的情況將會發生哪些變化？</font></strong></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>深圳衛視直新聞特約評論員劉和平：</font></strong><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>毫無疑問，過去近八十年來，台灣問題之所以會存在，尤其是兩岸之所以遲遲無法走向統一，根本原因就在於外部因素的干預，尤其是來自於美國及其盟友的政治和軍事壓力。然而我認為，這次川普的“二進宮”，已經使得中國大陸在解決台灣問題時，面臨的外圍環境發生了根本性的變化，或者說已經使得中國大陸面臨的來自美國及其盟友的政治和軍事壓力，得到了緩解。我們甚至可以說，在是否軍事介入台灣問題上，美國原本持有的模糊戰略，逐漸走向清晰，也就是美國軍事介入台海局勢的可能性，基本上已經接近零了。</font></p>
