<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>國民黨主席選舉花落誰家？明天傍晚揭曉。原本自以為穩操勝券的郝龍斌，目前選情告急；反而是鄭麗文越戰越勇，選情如倒吃甘蔗。兩人當選機率，似乎來到五、五波局面。</span></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/bf1107f769bf4ac898439537eb8d47a2~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1761286618&x-signature=rz6ssLV3koqeWs3YEGbsLTWB7uM%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”1057″ img_width=”1600″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/bf1107f769bf4ac898439537eb8d47a2~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1761286618&x-signature=rz6ssLV3koqeWs3YEGbsLTWB7uM%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/234c8ed5590b40cfb82c4a13a99754bb” />
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<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>目前有三大跡象顯示選情對郝龍斌不利：一是多數民調結果顯示，在支持度以及看好度方面,鄭麗文持續領先；其中一項網絡民調更顯示，鄭的支持率高達71%；而在看好度方面，鄭麗文也彎道超車實現「反轉」。二是最近接連出現地方派系倒戈現象，包括新竹市議長許修睿、南投縣議長何勝豐、副議長潘一全等多名藍營縣市議長，紛紛公開表態支持鄭麗文。第三是郝龍斌陣營開始有些自亂陣腳的味道，一會兒無厘頭打「抹紅」策略，一會兒請托王金平發聲明，只為證明他去見過王金平。這讓外界質疑，郝是不是擔憂地方派係指標性人物王金平不挺他而造成骨牌效應？</font></p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>郝龍斌是6位候選人中唯一有縣市長執政經驗與國民黨副主席經驗者，這似乎是他的優點，但也是他的罩門。 73歲，比朱立倫還年長9歲；而且個人形象並沒有特別耀眼。朱立倫若「交棒」給一個比自己還大9歲的人，這只會強化外界有關「國民黨太老」的觀感。</font></p>
<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>不過，原本郝龍斌還有從容容、游刃有餘的空間。畢竟，他在黨員大票倉即原「黃復興」黨部有優勢，現任黨主席朱立倫無法支持「反朱」鄭麗文與羅智強，不得不「挺郝」；又有媒體人趙少康幫忙牽線地方派系。這也是郝龍斌最後敢出來參選，原本自以為穩坐釣魚台的原因。</font></p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>但越選越吃力，如今選情告急，郝龍斌自己及其陣營其實犯了三大嚴重錯誤。</font></p>
<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>首先，郝龍斌從宣布參選那一刻起，就留給外界一個「趙少康的提線木偶」之刻板印象。由趙少康勸說才參選、登記由趙少康陪同、接觸地方派係由趙少康牽線、關鍵議題由趙少康代為回應、辯論會由趙少康關門培訓……一旦「提線木偶」的形象定格，對郝龍斌的選情衝擊就已經形成。</font></p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>這是戰略級錯誤。外界自然會問：「郝康隊」到底是郝龍斌在選？還是趙少康在選？郝龍斌的自主性在哪裡？未來郝若當選國民黨主席，趙少康會不會是「地下黨主席」？這樣的質疑不斷，陰影不散，對郝龍斌就是一種傷害。</font></p>
<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>其次，郝龍斌陣營還犯了兩次重大戰術性失誤：一，採納趙少康建議，以所謂「來不及」為理由，拒絕參加中天舉行的辯論會；二是趙少康跟拜民進黨，採取「抹紅」策略，無端指控大陸國民黨主席選舉，而且還呼籲清德當局調查「國安賴局」。</font></p>
<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>連黨內辯論都不敢參加，外界就會質疑，未來郝龍斌若當選國民黨主席，要如何面對民進黨更犀利更猛烈的攻擊？趙少康「介選說」一出，深藍人士就質疑，這種「抹紅」戰法不是跟拜民進黨嗎？以後郝龍斌若當選要如何處理國共關係與兩岸關係？在沒有任何證據情況下妄言大陸“介選”，這不是進入民進黨的設定的圈套框架嗎？以後國民黨要如何繼續阻擋民進黨「國安法」修法提案？這不是給民進黨「修法」解套嗎？不是給賴清德遞刀嗎？</font></p>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>基本上，這次國民黨主席選舉被認為是國民黨內「世代交替」及「安定保守」兩條路線的分歧。藍營多數基層黨員以及馬英九都支持“世代交替”，希望“老人交棒”；國民黨傳統勢力與地方派系更傾向保守路線。 「世代交替」的代表人物為鄭麗文與羅智強，但羅智強因其無役不與的參政風格，被基層懷疑他這次參選還是來湊熱鬧、選假的，這使得基層黨員對國民黨改頭換面的期待集中投射在鄭麗文身上。</font></p>
<p data-track=”13″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>而在兩岸路上，鄭麗文雖然出身綠營，但她這次卻承襲深藍路線，成功在大票倉「搶食」郝龍斌的選票。而且,鄭麗文獲得媒體力量支持，口才又好，因此聲量一點也不遜色，甚至還略勝一籌。</font></p>
<p data-track=”14″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>明天選舉最後誰會勝出，關鍵就看基層黨員、希望「世代交替」的黨員自主投票熱情，以及更偏向支持郝龍斌的地方派係到底能催出多少選票。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>日本藤素</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; 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