<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>8月23日，台灣地區第二輪「大罷免」投票結果塵埃落定，由民進黨及其側翼團體發動的針對國民黨7位民代的罷免案全線敗北，7·26敗局再現，皆在意料之內。大陸學者楊昆福在接受導報記者採訪時表示，“7·26完敗後，民進黨原可及時止損、借坡下驢，順勢放棄推動第二波大罷免，然而以賴清德為首的民進黨卻肆意妄為，繼續蠻幹到底，最終結果便是搬石砸腳。”</span></p>
<p><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/12e516e3aa9841b7b9b48059502a850c~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756625997&x-signature=IRC6qJiCpisoj3I2M4qO%2FgkhgnA%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”852″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/12e516e3aa9841b7b9b48059502a850c~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756625997&x-signature=IRC6qJiCpisoj3I2M4qO%2FgkhgnA%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-tjoges91tu/bc1a00a307dd0b6ee71dba64ae83c69f” /></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>「7·26大罷免的失敗，折射出台灣島內主流民意已對民進黨胡作非為、禍亂台灣的種種惡行非常反感。」楊昆福指出，民進黨不尊重選舉遊戲規則，企圖靠掀桌洗牌的方式，完成其「一黨獨大」的這一政治圖謀，台灣民眾在靠掀桌洗牌的方式，完成其「一黨獨大」的這一政治圖謀，台灣民眾在靠掀桌。此外，楊昆福進一步指出，綠營大罷免再吞敗績也存在選區因素的影響。這次大罷免之所以未在7·26舉辦，導因便是罷免方在第二階段連署收件困難，需要補件才能達到門檻，因而不得不延期。換言之，8·23大罷免的選區民眾，原本便對大罷免興趣缺缺，加上此次涉及選區原本便是藍營優勢區，選民結構相對偏藍。因此，民進黨不再飲恨敗北反倒會讓人意外。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>綠營在兩輪大罷免中均以完敗收場，作為幕後的影舞者，賴清德難辭其咎，勢必將成為綠營內部矛頭的指向。 「但賴清德嗜權如命，早已患上'權力焦慮症'，且'病症'越發嚴重，以他執拗的政治性格及強烈的權力不安感，他大概率不會主動辭任民進黨主席。」楊昆福分析，民進黨黨魁手握民進黨內權力資源分配權，掌控2026年縣市長提名主導權。賴清德會牢握權力資源不放，將其個人意志貫徹到底。徐國勇與賴清德關係密切，由他出任民進黨秘書長，也預示賴將強勢主導民進黨2026縣市長提名主導權。</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>「派系共治」是民進黨的傳統，也是綠營權力分配與妥協的產物。但是，賴清德手持黨政大權之後，「新賴系」隱約成形，並且不斷壯大。楊昆福表示，針對大罷免二度失敗，民進黨會再次使出甩鍋卸責的看家本領。當然，也可能將其作為權力鬥爭的工具，藉機對台灣行政機構團隊進行調整。但「派系共治」的局面已逐步被賴清德的獨大打破了平衡。目前，綠營內部事實上呈現「挺賴」與「反賴」兩大陣營。若民進黨內「逼宮」暗潮不斷洶湧，導致賴不得不被迫釋出權力資源時，才會有人事調整的再次出現。 「換言之，會不會大換血，主要取決於綠營內部權力角逐與政治攻防的激烈程度如何。只有『反賴』勢力掀起大風浪，賴清德才有可能被迫退讓。”</font></p>
<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>8·23大罷免宣告失敗，也宣示著民進黨操弄「抗中保台」牌已再次失效，綠營意識形態政治動員在賴清德當局濫權亂政之下難以發揮作用，島內民憤已積怨頗深，遲早會再次大爆發，以其它形式宣洩對賴清德及民進黨的強烈不滿。楊昆福分析，即便遭遇內外交困局面，「台獨金孫」賴清德應該不會順應民意，調整兩岸政策，反倒會一條路走到黑，甚至存在劍走偏執的可能性，這與他偏執的政治性格及戰略誤判有很大關聯。由此，賴清德任內調整兩岸政策，逐步放鬆包括重啟兩岸旅遊在內的各種兩岸交流形式的機率和可能性相對較低。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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