郝龍斌樂極生悲！鄭麗文有恃無恐王金平或成新突破口黃國昌上頭了

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>2025年9月27日，藍營黨主席改選第二場辯論在中天電視台登場，郝龍斌臨時宣布加入辯論引發熱議。然而，這場看似「郝龍斌聲量壓倒群雄」的選戰背後，實則暗流湧動。就例如，連戰家族勢力悄悄佈局、王金平意外復出月台、黃國昌拋出「藍白合作」試探性議題等，對此藍營內部權力博弈已從台前延展至幕後，呈現出一幅派系角力與利益交換的複雜圖景。</span></span></span></span></span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/59307d3b9ca9486b81fdeb253ecf20dd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=kITc0DGdyPvv8lpyjGiYSj1hErs%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”615″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/59307d3b9ca9486b81fdeb253ecf20dd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=kITc0DGdyPvv8lpyjGiYSj1hErs%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f995dcbf7f524a998463e842fd883a37″ />
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<p data-track=”2″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>近一週內，三份民調數據將郝龍斌推上了「領跑者」的位置：第一，中天民調顯示其支持率為33.8%；第二，吳子嘉民調中藍營樣本內郝龍斌以27.6%的支持率位列首位；第三，9月27日最新民調更稱其支持率高15個百分點。然而，這些數據被質疑存在「樣本失真」。據媒體披露，中天民調中94.4%的受訪者是非藍營人士，吳子嘉民調藍營樣本僅199人，代表性存疑。更耐人尋味的是，郝龍斌此前因缺席首場辯論被批&ldquo;缺乏擔當&rdquo;，如今其又曝出以&ldquo;不分區提名&rdquo;與派系交易，因此郝龍斌被諷刺為趙少康的&ldquo;提線木偶&rdquo;。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3997c8b9129740feab35a019232f66c9~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=TABt3YKZbK0b3Ig%2FFFV%2F1dqgpaI%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”714″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3997c8b9129740feab35a019232f66c9~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=TABt3YKZbK0b3Ig%2FFFV%2F1dqgpaI%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3997c8b9129740feab35a019232f66c9″ />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉</span></p>
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>儘管郝龍斌聲勢高漲，但連戰家族的暗中佈局正悄悄改變選情。就例如9月26日，鄭麗文在「連繫」前「立委」李德維的陪同下，接連拜訪了苗栗地方大佬鐘東錦及「工商巨頭」林伯豐，並獲其公開支持。林伯豐稱其&ldquo;論述清晰、具備改革魄力&rdquo;，而李維德的陪同被媒體視為連戰家族對其的&ldquo;背書信號&rdquo;。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d1b475c42766494dbfedf40329880c0a~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=PewfXDa5B%2FgaImnRDFtXhDulY%2B8%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”743″ img_width=”799″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d1b475c42766494dbfedf40329880c0a~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=PewfXDa5B%2FgaImnRDFtXhDulY%2B8%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d1b475c42766494dbfedf40329880c0a” />
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<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>對此媒體分析指出，連戰家族的策略是透過代理人鄭麗文來延續其家族的影響力：一方面，鄭麗文作為連戰提攜的&ldquo;連系&rdquo;成員，其勝選將確保連家在藍營的決策權；另一方面，鄭麗文主打&ldquo;世代交替&rdquo;與&ldquo;兩龍岸認同&rdquo;，其能力契合基層對改革的比較期待，與維斌的風格對比。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/4044d2d4a297459aa4e295887034874e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=sRDYGKxvb%2BqbiISBHMUZoHIus48%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”608″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/4044d2d4a297459aa4e295887034874e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=sRDYGKxvb%2BqbiISBHMUZoHIus48%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/4044d2d4a297459aa4e295887034874e” />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>連戰</span></p>
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<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>好巧不巧的是，正當郝龍斌與鄭麗文打得「難捨難分」時，前「立法院長」王金平的動向引發關注。張亞中9月26日宣稱，若是勝選將邀請王金平負責兩岸交流事務，並稱其已&ldquo;點頭同意&rdquo;，這一表態與王金平此前&ldquo;不介入改線&rdquo;的立場自相矛盾。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5b614ee131a54ae4b500877c65fd643c~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=vNR67wcyjmgznHgDwIhhgXGGgNM%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”608″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5b614ee131a54ae4b500877c65fd643c~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=vNR67wcyjmgznHgDwIhhgXGGgNM%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/5b614ee131a54ae4b500877c65fd643c” />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>王金平</span></p>
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<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>張亞中為何點名要求其「擔此大任」呢？聽我給你細細一點：</span></p>

<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>首先，王金平的角色在於其獨特的政治資源，其作為藍營「本土派」代表，他既能協調黨內矛盾，又能與綠營人士保持聯繫。張亞中此舉意在分化郝龍斌的「藍白合作」敘事，同時為自身爭取到更多的談判籌碼。若鄭麗文勝選，王金平的介入空間將受限；如果郝龍斌上位成功，其「親白」傾向可能使得其成為藍白陣營之間的「傳話筒」。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/48198888b4ac42ffa612863cc7d83f3e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=qQaVlZ61z0N0Ft1LDmiaAdzyKes%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”691″ img_width=”1001″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/48198888b4ac42ffa612863cc7d83f3e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=qQaVlZ61z0N0Ft1LDmiaAdzyKes%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/48198888b4ac42ffa612863cc7d83f3e” />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>張亞中</span></p>
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<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>其次，再加上白營黨主席黃國昌在26日突然拋出「藍白合作」議題，聲稱願意與藍營對此進行協商，並暗示可能邀請趙少康參與討論。這一動作被指&ldquo;工於心計&rdquo;，因為此舉既向郝龍斌釋放了合作善意，同時又為民眾黨在2026年新北市長選舉中預留&ldquo;比民調&rdquo;的參選空間。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ee9fb4dd1a444ce4aaf685e9f768b396~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=cenJicAcETbS4%2BEL8%2FaZ6C0C2M4%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”722″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ee9fb4dd1a444ce4aaf685e9f768b396~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=cenJicAcETbS4%2BEL8%2FaZ6C0C2M4%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ee9fb4dd1a444ce4aaf685e9f768b396″ />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>黃國昌</span></p>
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<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>小編對此認為，此次改選表面光滑是候選人間的競爭，實則是藍營內部「醬缸文化」與「世代交替」矛盾的集中爆發。</span></p>

<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>1.郝龍斌代表傳統派系，依賴利益交換來維繫支持，但其「保守路線」卻與基層改革呼聲背道而馳；</span></p>

<p data-track=”14″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>2.鄭麗文則依托連戰家族與軍系資源，主打「兩岸認同」與組織動員，但需突破「連繫」標籤的限制；</span></p>

<p data-track=”15″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>3.王金平與黃國昌的介入，凸顯藍白陣營、本土派與改革派之間的利益拉鋸。</span></p>

<p data-track=”16″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>其關鍵轉折點將取決於第三、四場辯論的表現及連戰家族的最終表態。若是鄭麗文能鞏固「連繫」資源並擴大基層支持，或可打破郝龍斌的「民調泡沫」；但王金平與黃國昌「不合時宜」的表態，可能為藍營改選帶來更多的不確定性。</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align:left;”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span style=”color:#ff0000″><span style=”font-family:宋体”>日本藤素</span></span></span></span></a>&nbsp;<a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align:left;”><span><span 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<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;</p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ed6592c50a0040a690acc5857feb60cc~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=GDX4HScDDEWCKeC0mqYMBL3UIus%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”736″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ed6592c50a0040a690acc5857feb60cc~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759739342&amp;x-signature=GDX4HScDDEWCKeC0mqYMBL3UIus%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/ed6592c50a0040a690acc5857feb60cc” />
<p style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;color:rgb(153, 153, 153);”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>郝龍斌</span></p>
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<p data-track=”17″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:20px;margin-right:0px;margin-left:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;margin-bottom:0px !important;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>據小編來看，郝龍斌的「民調領先」更像是一場精心設計的輿論戰，其背後既有派系間的交易，也有對基層焦慮的精準捕捉。而被視為與其有「一戰之力」的鄭麗文和羅智強來講，可謂是一個風口，就看兩位如何把握住機會了！</span></p>