2028藍白「黃金三角」下架賴清德？

<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>台海網10月24日訊（導報記者吳生林）鄭麗文雷厲風行的作風驚艷了台北政壇。她當選中國國民黨主席後，各種工作推進速度非常快，22日公佈了國民黨秘書長與副主席人事案，黨務一級主管11月1日黨魁交接前要全部到位，相關&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;佈局也傳出正在提速，甚至有了初步方案。這顯示她參選國民黨主席，確實做了充分的準備。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>三縣市藍「禮讓」白？</font></strong></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>鄭麗文「藍白合」初步構想是怎樣的模式呢？</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>台媒披露說，她主張在&ldquo;反對'台獨'&rdquo;&ldquo;下架民進黨&rdquo;的共同理念框架下進行&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;。 2026年縣市長選舉，她已喊出&ldquo;該讓就讓&rdquo;，一般認為她可能會在新竹市、宜蘭縣、嘉義縣等&ldquo;禮讓&rdquo;，由民眾黨派人參選，選後組藍白&ldquo;聯合小內閣&rdquo;；然後，換取民眾黨主席黃國昌退出新北市長選舉並支持國民黨候選人。 2028年&ldquo;大選&rdquo;，台灣地區副領導人候選人由民眾黨出任，搭檔國民黨台灣地區領導人候選人，同時在適當民代選區進行合作，下架賴清德，在台民意機構實現藍白席位&ldquo;過半&rdquo;。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>儘管該方案目前只是傳言，但確實有相當的邏輯合理性。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>以新竹市為例。新竹市長是白營出身的高虹安（目前涉案被停職），這裡又是白營&ldquo;精神領袖&rdquo;柯文哲的家鄉，民眾黨2026年一定會全力固守，國民黨如果連這個地方都不&ldquo;禮讓&rdquo;，如何談&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;？</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>宜蘭縣現任縣長林姿妙涉貪案被停職，重創藍軍在當地的根基。之前，國民黨現任主席朱立倫派不分區民代吳宗憲提前準備，到宜蘭佈局並測試風向，但當地對吳的「空降」並不感冒。在國民黨固守不易的情況下，「藍白合」可能是不錯的選擇。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>事實上，鄭麗文當選新任主席後，吳宗憲也表態說，他「並不是非選不可」。最新消息稱，鄭麗文可能安排吳宗憲擔任國民黨文傳會主委。這是否是為宜蘭縣長選舉「藍白合」騰出善意空間？</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>嘉義縣同樣是國民黨的弱勢選區，若藍白不合，民進黨如探囊取物；若能&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;，還有想像空間。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>新北是「藍白合」風向標</font></strong></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>如果藍營作出上述&ldquo;禮讓&rdquo;，民眾黨2026年要如何支持國民黨？新北市長選舉就是一個風向性指標。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨在新北市連續執政20年，又是全台最大票倉。於國民黨而言，2026年必須守住，這關係到整個「九合一」選舉士氣以及2028年選舉佈局。鄭麗文當選黨主席後也表態一定會派人參選新北市長，等於宣示在這裡沒有任何退讓空間。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>黃國昌已表態參選新北市長，但他的民調支持度低於國民黨最可能的參選人李四川。如果藍綠對決，國民黨拿下新北市沒問題；可如果藍白不合，黃國昌一定是敗事有餘，只要他瓜分掉10%&mdash;15%的「在野」選票，民進黨將漁翁得利。因此，新北市&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;，對國民黨很關鍵。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>黃國昌沒說&ldquo;參選到底&rdquo;，也釋出&ldquo;藍白合&rdquo;善意，但強調與國民黨參選人&ldquo;比民調&rdquo;的方案。只要國民黨夠強，贏過黃國昌問題不大。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><strong style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>盧黃鄭3人分進合擊2028？</font></strong></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>當然，外在最關注的，還是2028年台灣地區領導人選出「藍白合」能否成局。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>以目前台灣選民結構而言，國民黨想要在2028年靠自己的力量單獨打敗民進黨，非常艱難；如果「藍白合」再度破局，2028年勢必重蹈2024年覆轍，大概率繼續「保送」賴清德。這背後關鍵原因是民進黨基本盤大於國民黨，尤其在年輕選票部分，國民黨只能拿15%左右，其他由民進黨和民眾黨瓜分。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>關於2028年選舉，日本知名學者小笠原欣幸作出最新研判：如果台中市長盧秀燕與黃國昌2028年形成&ldquo;盧昌配&rdquo;，那麼，讓國民黨主席鄭麗文鞏固深藍選票、盧秀燕吸引中間選民、黃國昌拉攏年輕族群，將形成藍白&ldquo;黃金三角&rdquo;，在這個模式下，208208年最終執政黨」，在這個模式下清黨。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>小笠原欣幸對台灣2020年「大選」和2022年縣市選舉都曾精準預測。他對2028年的研判頗具洞察力，具有相當參考意義。關鍵是，國民黨如何實現黨內大團結以及如何促成「藍白合」？這是鄭麗文要面對的考驗。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>日本藤素</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>美國黑金</span></a><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>威而鋼</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>印度威而鋼</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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