「台獨」10個月流失150萬支持者？

<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); color:rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>近日，立場偏「獨」的「台灣民意基金會」發佈民調報告顯示，10個月內，島上支持「台獨」的民眾流失了150萬！這背後到底透露出什麼訊號？</span></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>在台灣，政治議題的民調很多時候其實有特定政治目的的宣傳活動。正如德國知名政治傳播學者諾爾紐曼所言，公佈民調數據，會形成一種&ldquo;意見氣候&rdquo;，進而產生社會控制功能。對民調進行&ldquo;技術性操作&rdquo;，尤其在島上遇到&ldquo;統獨&rdquo;和選舉議題，民調被&ldquo;做手腳&rdquo;稀鬆平常。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>「台灣民意基金會」董事長遊盈隆是深綠色人士，在陳水扁當權時擔任過民進黨副秘書長。該機構發布的民調，以往多為民進黨服務，為「台獨」壯膽。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>可是，該機構最新發布的民調顯示，相較於10個月前，島上支持「台獨」的比例大幅重挫7.5%，降到了44.3%。遊盈隆解讀稱，這是賴清德上任以來「台獨」支持比例最低的一次；換算一下，等於不到一年流失約150萬人。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>其實，支持「台獨」的比例到底有多少，與機構效應有關，也與民調問題設計有關。這份民調即便顯示挺「獨」比例降到了44.3%，還是有極大水分。如果把「『台獨』意味著戰爭」這個前提加入問題中，一般認為，真正頑固支持「台獨」的比例不到15%。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>不過，同一家民調公司，相似的問題設計，10個月卻減少了150萬人支持&ldquo;台獨&rdquo;，這對民進黨和賴清德而言，當然是嚴重挫折。為何會這樣？</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>首先是與賴清德推動的大罷免有關。賴清德當初的盤算，是試圖透過成功大罷免後重選，扭轉台民意機構&ldquo;朝小野大&rdquo;的局面，以實現&ldquo;完全執政&rdquo;，進而遂行他的&ldquo;台獨&rdquo;作為。但，大罷免結果大失敗，顯示台灣民眾對他的瘋狂之舉越來越警覺。其次，大陸「打獨」越來越精準，越來越犀利，「台獨」支持者則越來越退縮。再者，大陸加速推動兩岸融合，包括島內網紅「館長」陳之漢、鍾明軒來大陸直播，讓台灣民眾對大陸的了解越來越多，相對地，他們對統一的疑慮在減少。最後，大陸加速推進統一進程，也讓島內民意快速變化。 「台獨」意味著戰爭，「台獨」分子最後會被清算，誰不在乎自己的身家性命呢？</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>事實上，許多台灣民眾都感受到台海局勢快速演變。大陸打「獨」清單越拉越長，懲「獨」越來越主動。尤其大陸去年發布《關於依法懲治「台獨」頑固分子分離國家、煽動分裂國家犯罪的意見》，宣布「台獨」分子最高判死刑，這是極具標誌性事件。此後，一波又一波的懸賞通告、立案偵查，台灣民眾意識到，大陸的打「獨」措施是可觸達的。</font></p>

<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>最近兩岸台海問題權威專家有關統一進程的研判，值得島內民眾聽聽。大陸有專家表示：「也許不久，我們會在『於無聲處聽驚雷』。」台灣政治大學東亞研究所教授邱坤玄說，中美戰略博弈已是平起平坐，中國大陸開始單方面出台促統方案，並且透過實際管轄的方式促進統一進程。台灣安全會議前秘書長蘇起說，解決台灣問題進入關鍵期，台灣要爭取主動，可能只有半年左右。</font><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>速效犀利士</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>犀利士</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt”>印度犀利士</span></a><span style=”background-color:transparent; color:rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family:宋体; font-size:12pt; text-align:left”>&nbsp;</span><a href=”https://xostrong.com/” style=”text-align: left; 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<p style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>結論就是一句話：「台獨」越瘋狂，越會提早滅亡</font></p>