<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”> <span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>下屆新北市長選任已成話題，有最新民調顯示，現任台北市副市長李四川仍居第一，但未表態者人數眾多。 《美麗島電子報》董事長吳子嘉分析民調數據指，民眾黨主席黃國昌若要切入新北市長選戰，首要挑戰是超越綠委蘇巧慧，否則在藍綠對決下難有角色。而該民調也顯示，藍白若共推黃國昌參選，也沒能贏蘇巧慧，但目前未表態者仍多。</span></span></span></span></p>
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px; text-shadow:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>《年代民調中心》18日公佈“2026新北市長選情民意調查”，若國民黨推出李四川角逐，他的支持率為31.6%，遠高於現任新北副市長劉和然的4.2%，另有64.2%尚未明確表態。民進黨方面，立委蘇巧慧支持率21.9%，前秘書長林右昌則為12.2%，未表態者達65.9%。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>進一步模擬對決情境，民調顯示，若由李四川對上蘇巧慧，支持率分別為37.7%與29.2%，李四川領先8.5個百分點；若李四川對上林右昌，則為37.5%比26.7%。至於劉和然，若迎戰蘇巧慧，支持度僅24.0%，落後對手35.4%；若對上林右昌，則是23.2%比31.4%，同樣處於下風。而未表態者高達45.4%。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>至於若是藍白若真推民眾黨的黃國昌代表參選新北市長，與蘇巧慧對決，支持度為29.3%，仍低於蘇巧慧的35.1%，但未表態者則有35 .6%；若黃國昌對上林右昌，在藍日與綠對決情勢下，黃國昌的支持度為27.5%，同樣落後林俊憲的35.0%，另有37.5%未表態。整體來看，黃國昌的表現雖優於劉和然，但支持度與領先幅度皆不如李四川。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>值得注意的是，整體民調仍有超過三成到六成選民未表態，代表後續選情仍具高度變數。李四川在藍營內支持度明顯領先，若參選，暫時保持優勢；相較之下，劉和然支持度偏低，難以和綠營人選抗衡。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉日前在網路節目《董事長開講》中分析最新民調，稱“黃國昌根本沒有問鼎新北的機會”，國民黨也沒有與其交易的理由。他分析，雖然李四川暫時領先，但差距不足10個百分點，若未能拉大領先幅度，蘇巧慧仍有追趕的可能性。吳子嘉並指出，黃國昌若要切入選戰，首要挑戰是超越蘇巧慧，否則在藍綠對決下難有角色。至於民進黨的林右昌，吳子嘉則認為，依照民進黨的往例，應該會是由蘇巧慧出線，就不必討論。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”13″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>他強調，國民黨的新北市提名時程，將待新任國民黨黨主席底定後再行確定。距離2026大選還有一年多，李四川雖暫居上風，但在高比例未表態選民的情況下，最後局勢仍可能出現變化。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”14″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”15″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>該份民調是由年代民調中心在8月12至16日，透過電話訪問，隨機調查1072位年滿20歲以上、戶籍在新北市的市民，在95%信心水準之下，抽樣調查在正負3.0個百分點之內；抽樣方法採用“隨機抽樣法”，以行政區別為分層單位。以住宅電話號碼簿為抽樣底冊，建造電話號碼資料庫，每筆被抽出的電話號碼採後兩碼隨機方式，加大涵蓋率，確保所抽出的樣本更具代表性。資料分析則為調查資料依新北市20歲以上母體性別、年齡、行政區等變項之人口結構進行統計加權處理。</span></span></span><a href=”https://yeeseex.com/”><span><span 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