台民調結果已定，大陸定調統一，「台獨」結局已定，賴清德恐怕已經無路可走，大快人心

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>一場針對&quot;立委&quot;的罷免投票，讓台灣地區島的政治勢力陷入激烈博弈。 7月26日首輪&quot;大罷免&quot;中，藍白陣營以25比0完勝，24名國民黨&quot;立委&quot;與民眾黨籍新竹市長高虹安均留任。而8月23日的第二輪罷免，將決定7名國民黨&quot;立委&quot;的去留，這場風波背後，是島內黨派的深層角力。</span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>一、藍營死守：7席一個都不能少</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>第二輪罷免名單聚焦在7人：台中的顏寬恆、楊瓊瓔、江啟臣，南投的馬文君、遊銖，新竹的林思銘和新北的羅明才。台灣地區中時新聞網分析，顏寬恆、遊銖是綠營重點目標，羅明才、馬文君則遭罷免團體緊盯。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/5d43d5e22ec749c597209cb8645cd8f6~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=8uESofsc46%2BrYvyEPgfCXvDSAc8%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”586″ img_width=”998″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/5d43d5e22ec749c597209cb8645cd8f6~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=8uESofsc46%2BrYvyEPgfCXvDSAc8%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/43a4fcd0eeb54bce8fa4ba2c9b9c545b” />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>國民黨態度堅決，智庫副執行長凌濤強調&quot;一席都不能少&quot;，稱7人皆非易與之輩。顏寬恆的政策表現獲選民認可，遊銖則因&quot;接地氣&quot;，與南投縣長許淑華合力爭取預算而受肯定。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>投票前一周，藍營造勢密集展開。 7位&quot;立委&quot;在選區自主舉辦活動，連結地方力量與民眾黨共同反罷。台中市3人尤為賣力，江啟臣的&quot;豐原山城團結大會&quot;聚集了韓國瑜、侯友宜、盧秀燕等藍營大咖，民眾黨主席黃國昌壓軸助講，呼籲以團結應對美國關稅衝擊，而非政治鬥爭。國民黨主席朱立倫則痛批民進黨在首輪失敗後仍堅持&quot;8&middot;23拼到底&quot;，是對新竹縣民的侮辱。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>二、綠營窘境：支持銳減與內部分裂</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>民進黨延續&quot;抗中牌&quot;，罷免團體在南投指責遊銖&quot;為大陸人謀福利&quot;，但收效甚微。親綠的&quot;台灣地區民意基金會&quot;民調顯示，僅31.7%民眾贊成罷免，61.4%反對。首輪投票後，贊成者驟減近200萬，反對者增超260萬，民進黨前民代林濁水直言&quot;糟到不能再糟&quot;。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7b76583805e9462e93565e88c12b8638~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=UmnQ7PJTbTBFmqNiL26ip82S%2BOI%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”658″ img_width=”1004″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7b76583805e9462e93565e88c12b8638~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=UmnQ7PJTbTBFmqNiL26ip82S%2BOI%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/7b76583805e9462e93565e88c12b8638″ />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>罷免團體本身也出了亂子。首輪結束後，曾出資支持造勢的領銜人曹興誠宣布&quot;不玩了&quot;，罷團失去資金支撐，僅能小規模掃街。民進黨內部更是紛爭不斷，民代王世堅呼籲撤回8&middot;23罷免案，遭同黨王義川、林楚茵圍攻，呂秀蓮則表態支持王世堅，黨內裂痕凸顯。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>財政上，台&quot;行政院&quot;通過的878.4億元新台幣追加預算中，15.4億元用於罷免與公投，遭國民黨&quot;立委&quot;羅智強痛批&quot;勞民傷財&quot;。東吳大學張元祥指出，這既是為首輪失敗&quot;補血&quot;，也是為2026年&quot;九合一&quot;選舉鋪路。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>罷免門檻與潛在風險</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>選委會公佈的數據顯示，7人罷免門檻各異：羅明才需74913票，顏寬恆76936票，楊瓊瓔65150票，江啟臣52213票，林思銘59625票，馬文君46039票，遊銖總數同意257%。</span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3c26fbf05bf847fe96285e8887744927~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=WONhvkvvsU652Hra1cvOR7AbJMI%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”584″ img_width=”994″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3c26fbf05bf847fe96285e8887744927~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1756368100&amp;x-signature=WONhvkvvsU652Hra1cvOR7AbJMI%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/3c26fbf05bf847fe96285e8887744927″ />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>儘管精神科醫師沈政男斷言無人能達標，但學者吳威志提醒，投票率是關鍵。 《中國時報》也警示，民進黨或放&quot;猛料&quot;幹擾選情，南投的遊銖因2024年僅勝對手3000多票，成為&quot;精準罷免&quot;目標，藍白需警惕。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>三、賴清德的信任危機</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>賴清德支持率持續下滑，TVBS民調顯示滿意度跌破三成，不滿意度超五成。台灣地區國際戰略學會江敖生指出，內政罷免內耗、物價高企、治安惡化，對外親美媚日卻難獲實質保障，成民眾不滿主因。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>《旺報》直言，罷免失敗、關稅談判受挫、兩岸緊張讓賴清德信任度大跌，國際&quot;疑賴論&quot;發酵。其團隊問題頻出，台內政部門負責人騷擾陸配，陸委會恐嚇民眾，賴清德本人紀念文章迴避抗戰勝利，遭美日媒體批評。</span></p>

<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:20px;margin-right:0px;margin-left:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;margin-bottom:0px !important;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>這場8&middot;23罷免，早已超越7人去留之爭，成為台灣地區政治生態的試金石。是持續內鬥還是務實施政，民進黨與賴清德的選擇，正被越來越多台灣地區民眾審視。</span><a href=”https://yeeseex.com/”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span style=”color:#ff0000″><span style=”font-family:宋体”>夜色春藥網官網</span></span></span></span></a>&nbsp;<a href=”https://yeeseex.com/shop/”><span><span 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