<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”> <span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>2026新北市長選戰人選備受關注，最新民調顯示，現任台北市副市長李四川仍居第一，但未表態者人數眾多。對此，前立委郭正亮表示，李四川若出戰，勝率超過90%。</span></span></span></span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 18px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/25b417c2cd9548588b93fb332d2fd660~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756374015&x-signature=kpYjzPyec0%2F7S3NrJ%2Fz8co3FlCo%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”558″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/25b417c2cd9548588b93fb332d2fd660~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756374015&x-signature=kpYjzPyec0%2F7S3NrJ%2Fz8co3FlCo%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/9400f1551f4c466882b2ee60442187d0″ />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px; text-shadow:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>根據《年代民調中心》18日公佈的“2026新北市長選情民意調查”，若國民黨推出李四川角逐，他的支持率為31.6%，遠高於現任新北副市長劉和然的4.2%，另有64.2%尚未明確表態。民進黨方面，立委蘇巧慧支持率21.9%，前秘書長林右昌則為12.2%，未表態者達65.9%。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>郭正亮昨天(20日)在中天《綠也掀桌》節目中表示，新北市長選戰，若是一對一，目前本來就對藍白比較有利，因為民眾黨不會支持民進黨的蘇巧慧，了不起不表態。他認為李四川若出戰一定上，勝率超過90%。主持人李珮瑄不禁表示，但李四川畢竟還沒有實際的選舉經驗。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>郭正亮接著表示，因為李四川知名度夠，李四川現在在台北市，資源在新北，他也待過高雄。而現在的選民有點討厭口水，就覺得要找個會做事的人，李四川這方面的形像根深蒂固。如果李四川去高雄選，民調應該也不會輸國民黨立委柯志恩。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>郭正亮指出，李四川在新北待過蠻久的，所以他強調還是要有知名度，李四川知名度會這麼高， 他也蠻好奇的，因為他也很少上電視。李四川的知名度，如果從做事的人裡面來看，李四川算是高的，像劉和然的民調就拉不起來，所以跟知名度有關。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>至於藍白在新北怎麼合作？ 郭正亮認為，整合一定有一個標準，所以民調還是要第一。民眾黨前主席柯文哲當年是贏過民進黨的顧立雄、姚文智，不然民進黨也不可能會支持柯文哲，民進黨覺得反正不一定會上，就試試看；所以「新潮流」是推顧立雄，姚文智則是自己衝出，姚文智是很認真在選，是還是輸風了，所以就保持一個輸風。他認為，藍白還是要有人事上的整合，例如議員的部分，要不要做一些讓步，所以還是要整個談。</span></span></span></p>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”13″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px; text-shadow:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>該份民調是由年代民調中心在8月12至16日，透過電話訪問，隨機調查1072位年滿20歲以上、戶籍在新北市的市民，在95%信心水準之下，抽樣調查在正負3.0個百分點之內；抽樣方法採用“隨機抽樣法”，以行政區別為分層單位。以住宅電話號碼簿為抽樣底冊，建造電話號碼資料庫，每筆被抽出的電話號碼採後兩碼隨機方式，加大涵蓋率，確保所抽出的樣本更具代表性。資料分析則為調查資料依新北市20歲以上母體性別、年齡、行政區等變項之人口結構進行統計加權處理。</span></span></span><a 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