<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”> <span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>台島最近這陣熱鬧得很，一邊是823罷免投票的硝煙還沒散，另一邊國民黨主席改選的戲碼已經搭好了台。鄭麗文這名字，最近在藍營圈子裡喊得震天響——“盧不選，我就選到底”，這話一出口，不少人都想起了當年的洪秀柱。一樣的敢說敢衝，一樣的想給暮氣沉沉的國民黨來記“強心針”，這“第二個洪秀柱”的說法，可不是空穴來風。</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>01</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>先說說眼下這局面。國民黨主席改選的日子定得明明白白，9月4、5日登記，10月18日投票，11月1日就交接。朱立倫那邊已經放話“一定交棒”，等於把“不連任”的話釘死了。現在最受關注的，就是台中市長盧秀燕。外界都覺得她是接棒的熱門，畢竟聲望擺在那兒，還是2028「大選」的潛在人選。但偏偏消息傳出來，說她參選意願不高。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ab95e3f4cc594b2c93ffe2306193a7ff~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=rAStGuZV6YfYtghMrDMh50Gpsqc%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”675″ img_width=”1200″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ab95e3f4cc594b2c93ffe2306193a7ff~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=rAStGuZV6YfYtghMrDMh50Gpsqc%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/72aecb310de4460dada872eb9768151f” />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>盧秀燕這心思不難猜。國民黨主席這位置，看著風光，其實是個燙手山芋。每個月將近四千萬新台幣的硬成本要扛，人事、選務一堆爛事等著處理，哪有安安穩穩做她的台中市長舒坦？她自己也說“市政優先”，這話說得實在，換誰都得掂量掂量。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>就是這空當，鄭麗文跳了出來。她在政論節目裡明說，只要823之後盧秀燕表態不參選，她就「參選到底」。這話不是隨口說的，背後有不少支持者推著──有人說她參選就回黨繳黨費，有人說她當選就入黨。這份熱情，在最近有點蔫的國民黨裡，算是少見的火苗了。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>鄭麗文喊的口號也夠響亮：「要讓國民黨脫胎換骨！」她直接點出，國民黨得把支持度拉到民進黨上頭，2028必須政黨輪換。不只是下架民進黨，更要“保護台灣，不要因為賴清德的政治豪賭把台灣賠進去”，還要“堅定追尋兩岸和平的基業”。這些話，句句都戳在當下台灣社會的痛點。畢竟賴清德這陣子民調跌得像坐滑梯，「大罷免」不得人心，老百姓早就煩透了沒完沒了的政治內鬥。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>02</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>有人拿鄭麗文比洪秀柱，這對比挺有意思。當年洪秀柱也是憑著一股“孤勇”，在國民黨低谷時站出來，敢說別人不敢說的話，硬生生把自己推到了前台。鄭麗文現在這架勢，確實有幾分相似。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>國民黨這幾年的標籤太難看了——「軟弱」「妥協」「慢半拍」。就拿“大罷免”來說，民進黨動用行政資源要把反對黨民代一鍋端，韓國瑜怒斥這是“政治屠殺”，可藍營裡能像他這樣硬氣發聲的，沒幾個。鄭麗文不一樣，她在立法機構就擅長“用規則反擊規則”，鏡頭前從不怯場，情緒飽滿，話也說得直白。這種「戰鬥派」風格，正是現在國民黨最缺乏的。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/186a159dd47b4394883172711555d5fd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=PtYxzfvQdXyD5pOXGqh6lSeI7hM%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”754″ img_width=”1200″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/186a159dd47b4394883172711555d5fd~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=PtYxzfvQdXyD5pOXGqh6lSeI7hM%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/186a159dd47b4394883172711555d5fd” />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>但她面臨的坎兒也不少。黨魁選舉從來不是光靠喊口號就能贏的，說穿了就是「組織戰+資源戰+路線戰」的三合一較量。組織上，她得握住縣市首長、民代、中常委的支持，可現在公開資訊裡，她的組織名單、地方派系背書都還沒影。資源上，每個月四千萬的財務壓力，她怎麼分給企業和派系分擔？這都是實打實的難題。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>路線上更關鍵。她喊“兩岸和平”，這符合藍營傳統，但怎麼讓中間選民不反感，讓基本盤覺得“夠勁”，還得讓大陸這邊覺得“可談可行”？這分寸不好拿捏。有人甚至誇張說“她當選兩岸統一指日可待”，這就太扯了。兩岸關係牽扯太多變量，美國因素、區域安全、經濟週期，哪一個都不是換個黨魁就能搞定的。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>03</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>眼下這823罷免投票，對鄭麗文來說是個坎，也是個機會。藍營現在把「反惡罷」當階段任務，如果能守住這7席民代，說明基本盤動員得不錯，對接下來的主席選舉是利好。要是出了岔子，暴露了組織上的漏洞，那誰能第一時間補上，誰就能佔先機。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>鄭麗文要是聰明，就得在罷免結果出來當晚，拿出一版「數據—對策」清單。哪裡動員不力，哪裡需要加強，清清楚楚列出來。這樣一來，她的“戰鬥派”標籤就能升級成“戰鬥+治理兼備”，聲量才能真的變成選票。</span></p>
<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>還有兩個人不能不提──韓國瑜和蔣萬安。韓國瑜現在是民意負責人，手上握著群眾動員的引擎，他支援誰，幾乎等於送半票。蔣萬安雖然明確不參選，但他的「治理型」形像要是能給誰站台，信任度立刻能漲一截。鄭麗文能不能接上這兩位的力，要看她接下來的動作。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f32be519ad3c4ab9bca508e4a3e7802d~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=Z4MAw%2B%2B5mEXESziQd%2BbzfoQ3rVM%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”674″ img_width=”1200″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f32be519ad3c4ab9bca508e4a3e7802d~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1756628864&x-signature=Z4MAw%2B%2B5mEXESziQd%2BbzfoQ3rVM%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f32be519ad3c4ab9bca508e4a3e7802d” />
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<p style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>至於其他人，張亞中、卓伯源也宣示要選，但聲量都沒鄭麗文大。郝龍斌有邱於軒支持，但他願不願意出來還兩說。這些人裡頭，誰能把「連署名單」和「縣市聯動」做紮實，誰才真的有戲。畢竟每一屆黨魁選舉都證明，媒體上最吵的，未必是最後贏的。</span></p>
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