<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> <span style=”background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; text-align:justify”>2026年台南市長選舉，根據《東森民調》公佈的最新《台南初選報告》顯示，若是民進黨立委林俊憲對上國民黨立委謝龍介，林俊憲獲得36.6%支持，謝龍介則有31.6%，雙方差距不大，但有31.8%受訪者未表態。若換成綠委陳亭妃對上謝龍介，陳亭妃的支持度高達43.2%，遠高於謝龍介的27.0%，領先幅度超過16個百分點，但有29.9%未表態。台灣名嘴資深媒體人張禹宣分析表示，互比式民調，林俊憲在國民黨的部分拿到9.2%，陳亭妃竟然可以拿下國民黨53.5%的票，因此，未來如果排除藍白，只留下鋼鐵綠粉，在互比式的狀況下，林俊憲就會翻盤。</span></p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/53460ed4a2aa451e98c52c6be86ed49b~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1758447360&x-signature=Q%2B2jHx%2BJGXOT7tomfeSu20LE5qY%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”492″ img_width=”656″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/53460ed4a2aa451e98c52c6be86ed49b~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1758447360&x-signature=Q%2B2jHx%2BJGXOT7tomfeSu20LE5qY%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/2f6d9c3c48514185bb115c1b02b1c871″ />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><span class=”data-color–tt-darkmode-c1c1c1″ style=”–tt-darkmode-color:#C1C1C1; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(0, 0, 0); margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>張禹宣日前在《關鍵時刻》節目中表示，看到民調的細部，就會發現一個玄機，當林俊憲對上立委謝龍介，從檯面上來看差距非常小，只有5%；在國民黨的部分，林俊憲只得了4.2%，而謝龍介在國民黨的部分，足足額足介拿了一個對比式民調。但在民進黨的部分，你會發現，林俊憲竟然只拿了74.3%，這數字不正常，因台南現在是民進黨執政縣市，拿到9成都不為過，像國民黨的表態率就非常高。</font></span></p>
<p class=”syl-page-br” data-track=”4″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; height: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”> </p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><span class=”data-color–tt-darkmode-c1c1c1″ style=”–tt-darkmode-color:#C1C1C1; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(0, 0, 0); margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>張禹宣接著表示，真正有趣的是互比式民調，也就是當林俊憲跟陳亭妃兩人火車對撞的狀況下，你會發現，林俊憲在國民黨的部分是9.2%，很正常。但這時陳亭妃竟然可以拿下國民黨53.5%的票，換言之，一大堆國民黨黨籍的人願意去支持陳亭妃，所以票灌下去之後，林俊憲20%比陳亭妃37.1%。但在民進黨裡面，林俊憲37.5%，陳亭妃竟然只有34.8%。</font></span></p>
<p class=”syl-page-br” data-track=”6″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; height: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”> </p>
<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><span class=”data-color–tt-darkmode-c1c1c1″ style=”–tt-darkmode-color:#C1C1C1; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(0, 0, 0); margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>張禹宣指出，遊戲規則很重要，如果說是在不排除藍白的狀況下，民進黨內部做一個初選民調，不管是對比或是互比，陳亭妃一定贏。但如果今天把藍白排除出去，只留下鋼鐵綠粉，也就是一定要是民進黨的堅定支持者，才準投這個票。那在互比式的狀況下，林俊憲就會翻盤。</font></span></p>
<p class=”syl-page-br” data-track=”8″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; height: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”> </p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><span class=”data-color–tt-darkmode-c1c1c1″ style=”–tt-darkmode-color:#C1C1C1; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(0, 0, 0); margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>張禹宣更點出，如果未來出線的是陳亭妃，那代表賴清德真的要跟派系和解了，覺得把餅做大再說，2028連任最重要，林俊憲就委屈一點；但如果最後是由林俊憲出馬，那代表賴清德的意志還是要貫徹到底。</font></span></p>
<p class=”syl-page-br” data-track=”10″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 18px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; height: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”> </p>
<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><span class=”data-color–tt-darkmode-c1c1c1″ style=”–tt-darkmode-color:#C1C1C1; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:rgb(0, 0, 0); margin:0px; padding:0px”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>該民調由《東森新聞》委託雨晴民調公司執行，訪問地區涵蓋台南市全部37個行政區，抽樣方法採用隨機撥號，以中華電信住宅電話為母體，並加入末兩碼隨機處理，以涵蓋未登錄號碼，訪問共1072份。訪問對象為年滿20歲以上的民眾，調查時間為2025年9月5日至7日，每日下午及晚間進行。在95%信心水準下，抽樣誤差約±3個百分點。本調查以SPSS軟體進行資料分析，並依「內務部」戶政司公佈的2025年6月底人口統計資料，針對性別、年齡與戶籍進行加權處理。</font></span><a href=”https://longscity.com/” style=”background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); 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