最新民調「柯志恩與綠委五五波」！他揭1關鍵：高雄綠地變藍天

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”>有媒體昨天（16日）公佈最新高雄市長民調，結果顯示，民進黨立委賴瑞隆和許智傑的民調比國民黨立委柯志恩略高，民進黨立委林岱樺與柯志恩持平，民進黨立委邱議瑩則落後柯志恩。對此，國民黨青年部前主任陳冠安點出，這份民調的結構是&ldquo;泛綠大於泛藍&rdquo;，但柯志恩依然能與綠營候選人打成五五波，倘若民調結構沒有這麼綠，以柯志恩獲得跨族群支持的情況來看，高雄市長這一仗，確實有很高機率可以翻轉，綠地變藍天。</span></span></span></span></p>

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<p data-track=”3″ style=”box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>根據《鏡報》今日公佈的最新民調顯示，若與柯志恩直接對決，賴瑞隆的支持度為41.8%，比柯志恩的38.5%高出3.3 個百分點，尚有近兩成選民未表態；若是許智傑對柯志恩，許智傑則以39.8%小幅領先柯志恩的百分位差距。如果林岱樺與柯志恩對決，兩人支持度同為38.8%；邱議瑩則以37.8%落後柯志恩的41.8%，差距達4個百分點。</span></span></span></p>

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<p data-track=”5″ style=”box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>陳冠安昨天在臉書發文表示，簡單來說，從這份民調來看，無論民進黨由誰出線，領先或落後柯志恩的差距最大不過3至4%，可謂藍綠五五波，但魔鬼總是藏在細節裡，看民調除了表面數據以外，更重要的是政黨結構的分佈。在《鏡報》這份民調中，有40%的樣本是民進黨支持者，國民黨19.8%、民眾黨10.5%、中間選民24.1%，若加上2.7%時力、1.4%基進黨支持者，泛綠基本盤高達44.1%，而藍白總和不過30.3%。</span></span></span></p>

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<p data-track=”7″ style=”box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>陳冠安指出，有趣的是，4位民進黨參選人的支持率都低於泛綠基本盤，反觀柯志恩，無論對上綠營的誰，都能拿到遠超藍白基本盤的票，不只藍白鞏固，更可以拿到多數有表態的中間選民支持。綠營4位參選人，則不只連泛綠支持盤都拿不滿，更幾乎拿不到任何非綠、中間選民的支持。</span></span></span></p>

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<p data-track=”9″ style=”box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>陳冠安認為，整體而言，《鏡報》這份民調結構，綠是藍白的1.5倍左右，即使如此，柯志恩與4名綠營戰將都還能戰成五五波，關鍵就在於，當民進黨4位候選人尚無法鞏固泛綠時，柯志恩已然跨出藍白、整合好非綠，爭取中間選民支持。倘若民調結構沒有這麼綠，以柯志恩獲得跨族群支持的情況來看，高雄市長這一仗，確實有很高機率可以翻轉，綠地變藍天。</span></span></span></p>

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