柯文哲民調回升，預計再度呼風喚雨

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>前民眾黨主​​席、台北市前市長柯文哲於本月8日以7,000萬元新台幣交保獲釋。台灣民意基金會今日（24日）發布最新民調分析指出，儘管柯文哲在去年9月因涉案被收押時，民眾對其好感度曾跌至44.91度的歷史低點，但經司法程序後，其社會溫度已回升至48.81度，距離突破象徵積極評價的50度門檻僅差1.19度，顯示更具基本凝聚力。</span></span></span></span></span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9e21586f12f047c7846131bd7a749083~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759397680&amp;x-signature=gA9lfTp6q%2BschUhVQbK5xJkTzWs%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”682″ img_width=”1024″ mime_type=”image/jpeg” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/9e21586f12f047c7846131bd7a749083~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1759397680&amp;x-signature=gA9lfTp6q%2BschUhVQbK5xJkTzWs%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/46bbbe5ea44947cdb593aa7a12521d6c” />
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<p data-track=”2″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>基金會以「政治溫度計」量化民眾情感傾向，設定0度為極端反感、100度為極度支持。本次調查顯示，20歲以上台灣民眾中，34.6%對柯文哲持51度以上好感，29.7%維持49度以下負面評價，另有29.3%表達無感。基金會董事長遊盈隆解讀稱，儘管整體評價仍處負面區間，但好感群體已超越反感群體4.9個百分點，形成「支持者更堅定、反對者未增加」的特殊態勢。</span></p>

<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>縱向對比可見，柯文哲自2024年9月被羈押至今，民意溫度回升3.9度。基金會特別引用歷史案例指出，韓國瑜在2019年罷免危機中曾創34.7度個人新低，蔡英文2018年九合一選舉失利後亦跌至42.1度，但兩人均透過後續政治運作實現「鹹魚翻身」。這次柯文哲雖未達50度關鍵點，但其支持者呈現「逆境凝聚」現象，基金會預測若後續司法案件無重大負面轉折，柯在台灣政壇仍將保有顯著影響力。</span></p>

<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>目前48.81度的溫度值反映社會對柯文哲仍存謹慎態度－既有期待其東山再起的支持者，亦有保持距離的觀望群體。</span></p>

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