<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”> <span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>根據鋒燦傳媒昨天（31日）公佈的台南市長選舉最新民調，依民進黨初選擬採用的對比式調查結果，若民進黨推派陳亭妃參選，將以52.6%大勝國民黨立委謝龍介的24.9%，領先27.7個百分點；民進黨民進黨內黨內53%，則以37%為準27%。對此，台灣名嘴資深媒體人謝寒冰表示，鋒燦傳媒民調，他看出一個問題，裡面民進黨支持者佔超過5成，謝龍介和林俊憲還差那麼少。</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 18px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/c305e5af3af240a5a2779b465081ad97~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1762593004&x-signature=ItNrdJQr73xib1Efwi4Z6pv9dm0%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”492″ img_width=”656″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/c305e5af3af240a5a2779b465081ad97~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1762593004&x-signature=ItNrdJQr73xib1Efwi4Z6pv9dm0%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/6f5461d712e840928d5fadf84a3c7606″ />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>針對外事部門主管林佳龍力挺有意參選高雄市長的民進黨立委林岱樺，謝寒冰昨天(31日)在中天《大新聞大爆卦》節目中表示，外事部門主管林佳龍跳出來，對陳亭妃是有影響的，雖然她已經離開“正國會”。可是現在等於是把黨內不能揭開的茶壺內風暴直接揭開，接下來會出現很多自覺提名無望，或是被民進黨中央討厭的這些人，陸陸續續都會做一些表態；甚至力挺陳亭妃的某一些人開始不演了，就直接上。民進黨內一些競爭也會開始激烈化，這是好事，大家把所有意見挑明的講，然後看到會產生什麼樣的結果。</span></p>
<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>謝寒冰指出，對謝龍介來講，不管陳亭妃、林俊憲也好，至少在目前的民調，他都輸。最好的情況就是，還是拱林俊憲參選，就算陳亭妃沒有出來參選，但支持陳亭妃的人會賭爛，只要不爽投林俊憲就好，那對謝龍介就會加分，可是這畢竟是操之在別人，你無法期待。所以對謝龍介來講，根本不用想這些問題，他就是繼續努力跑基層、繼續努力去衝。</span></p>
<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 18px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f3e6b78b9b7548abb59720344e52b64e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1762593004&x-signature=IN5v%2FZc9yWi0JP2LE7bAS8YzOtY%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”676″ img_width=”1080″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f3e6b78b9b7548abb59720344e52b64e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1762593004&x-signature=IN5v%2FZc9yWi0JP2LE7bAS8YzOtY%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f3e6b78b9b7548abb59720344e52b64e” />
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<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>謝寒冰接著指出，鋒燦傳媒民調，他看出一個問題，裡面民進黨支持者佔比本來就很高，超過5成，因此民調會出現這樣的結果，一點也不意外。但即使有超過500%的民進黨支持者佔比，謝龍介和林俊憲的民調還差那麼少。他也發現，男性選民比較喜歡謝龍介，但女性選民大部分不喜歡謝龍介，他的男性支持度40%以上，女性支持度則掉到20幾趴，所以這10幾趴，謝龍介要去彌補回來；若是能把女性支持度還贏5%或6%，那下次的民調，謝龍介不是跟林俊憲旗介相當會贏林俊憲旗。</span></p>
<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”> </p>
<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>該民調是由《鋒燦傳媒》委託循證民調有限公司執行，調查時間為10月27至28日，調查對象為戶籍在台南市且年滿20歲以上民眾，調查方法採家用電話訪問，以中華電信之住宅電話簿為樣本總數，進行系統隨機抽樣，完成樣本數少於10062062666日之民之分之選，200個全民之選。本調查完成樣本數為1,201（95%信心水準下，本調查抽樣誤差為± 2.83%）；加權方法：依台南市政府民政局公佈之114年9月份人口統計資料，針對性別、年齡、戶籍地人口比例進行多變數反復加權(Raking)。</span><a href=”https://yeeseex.com/”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span style=”color:#ff0000″><span 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