北高市長選戰！黃偉瀚大膽預測：綠營這2人出線機會大

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>外傳一份民進黨高雄市長選舉內參民調，顯示在與藍委柯志恩對比的部分，綠委賴瑞隆以44.5%的支持度，領先柯志恩的36%；綠委林岱樺則以39.8%領先柯志恩的35.1%；綠委許智傑以40.4%領先柯志恩的37%；綠委邱議瑩以37.4%的支持度，落後柯志恩的40.5%。至於北市之戰，壯闊聯盟理事長吳怡農已確定參選台北市長，完成黨內登記。媒體人黃偉瀚認為，明年民進黨高雄市可能提名賴瑞隆，因為他可以贏得柯志恩更多，所以更保險。至於台北市，壯闊聯盟創辦人吳怡農出線機會蠻高的。</span></span></span></span></span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 18px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/76e5a910e286463e828180efafe4f425~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1763111575&amp;x-signature=cI4z8DyWMcQhAp6ooQ04egRs9%2BQ%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”702″ img_width=”1040″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/76e5a910e286463e828180efafe4f425~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1763111575&amp;x-signature=cI4z8DyWMcQhAp6ooQ04egRs9%2BQ%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/2116dea02c394d71aeb447ff365f9d96″ />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>針對該份曝光的民進黨高市選戰內參民調，黃偉瀚6日在《鄉民大學問》節目中表示，邱議瑩對柯志恩是輸的，邱議瑩卻發新聞稿稱，這個民調不對，她自己做的民調，是贏柯志恩的。而林岱樺的民調，跟柯志恩的差距是4個百分點，賴瑞隆則是8個百分點。</span></p>

<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>黃偉瀚接著表示，如果最後民調真的是這樣，明年民進黨高雄市可能就是提名賴瑞隆，因為他可以贏柯志恩更多，所以更保險。所以不是看他們互比，互比如果是第二名，對比可以贏最多，最後經過考慮的話，通常對比佔比會比較高，因為能夠贏柯志恩。</span></p>

<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>黃偉瀚指出，民進黨有42.5%條款，就是每一次選舉選完後，如果得票率42.5%以上，要初選；如果42.5%以下，表示是艱難選區。例如台北市，前「衛福部長」陳時中都未達此項比例，所以在下一次選舉，會被視為艱困選區，就直接派人出戰。以此來判斷，壯闊聯盟創辦人吳怡農出線機會蠻高的，因為只有他繳意願書，只要他的民調沒有太差，很可能就是吳怡農。</span></p>

<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

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