2026民進黨慘了？吳子嘉看民調驚人預測：可能會丟掉“這都”

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>根據《TVBS》15日公佈台南市長選舉最新民調顯示，如果民進黨由立委陳亭妃對決國民黨立委謝龍介，會以5個百分點勝出；謝龍介將以12個百分點勝出綠委林俊憲。對此，台灣名嘴資深媒體人吳子嘉預測表示，根據台南市長選舉民調，民​​進黨有可能會丟掉台南，謝龍介會當選。</span></span></span></span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 18px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ec22cd7cff9247c7923d1de7932d5a88~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1758877379&amp;x-signature=tDzdg1jdGrqCsSjdkDoB8jf%2F%2BaM%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”400″ img_width=”534″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/ec22cd7cff9247c7923d1de7932d5a88~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1758877379&amp;x-signature=tDzdg1jdGrqCsSjdkDoB8jf%2F%2BaM%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/a7aba9beac684045b5878fd06ca926a0″ />
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<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉17日在《董事長開講》節目中表示，依照目前《TVBS》的民調來看，台南有可能會丟掉台南，謝龍介會當選。最重要的是，民進黨會分裂，分成兩塊，陳亭妃一塊、林俊憲一塊。他斷言這兩個人不會合，因為他們兩個鬥了20年。而在民進黨分裂的情況下，謝龍介有可能會當選，這是第一個可能性。</span></span></span></p>

<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉接著表示，第二個可能性，照現在這個民調看來，陳亭妃有可能出線。陳亭妃若出線，8到9成的議員跟陳亭妃不合，不會支持陳亭妃，會支持林俊憲。賴係人馬都跟賴清德走，陳亭妃一個人帶3、5個議員去選她的市長，然後大部分的議員反對陳亭妃，陳亭妃這個選舉怎麼選？</span></span></span></p>

<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”7″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉更指出，第三個可能性更惡劣，若非要讓林俊憲出線，那就是選對會主要召集人邱義仁講的困難的選區，那就是延後。</span></span></span></p>

<p data-track=”8″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”9″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 8px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>吳子嘉認為，如果台南讓陳亭妃當選市長，事情更大條，變成賴清德高血壓。所以為何找邱義仁來當選對會的主任委員，那是因為邱義仁的輩分夠。而民進黨的傳統，若輸掉，民進黨主席要下台，但他認為這次不會，因為賴清德這個民進黨主席若下台，2028就不用選了。</span></span></span></p>

<p data-track=”10″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;height:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-track=”11″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span style=”border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; padding:0px”><span style=”color:#000000″><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>該民調是《TVBS民調中心》於114年9月8日至12日晚間18：30至22：00進行的調查，共接觸1,211位20歲以上台南市民，其中拒訪為204位，拒訪率為16.8%，最後成功訪問有效樣本1,007位，在95%的信心上為95%。抽樣方法採用電話號碼後四碼隨機抽樣，人員電話訪問，所有資料並依母體性別、年齡、地區、教育程度等變項進行統計加權處理。調查經費來源為《TVBS》。</span></span></span><a href=”https://yeeseex.com/”><span><span style=”font-size:12pt”><span 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