不是林岱樺！沈政男曝民調分析：這2人對決

<p style=”color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Times New Roman;font-size:medium;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;”>&nbsp;<span style=”text-align:justify”><span style=”font-size:18px”><span style=”font-family:pingfang sc,hiragino sans gb,microsoft yahei,wenquanyi micro hei,helvetica neue,arial,sans-serif”><span style=”color:#222222″><span style=”background-color:#ffffff”>民進黨立委林岱樺爭取參選高雄市長，本月1日更舉行造勢，場面驚人熱烈，並自曝民調在領先群。但精神科醫師沈政男直言，民調其實顯示第一領先者另有其人，是林岱樺誤解了民調方法，不過這已經不重要，他評析藍委柯志恩日前所提&ldquo;民進黨內的民調&rdquo;，與近日相關媒體民調，斷言高雄市長最終將是綠委賴隆與柯志恩的對決。</span></span></span></span></span></p>

<div style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:18px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><img alt=”" data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/911380ed3e9b448c842f5cedabe88d49~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1762854597&amp;x-signature=4gypTR%2BJKK2sfK1WQZ4oEzrZbP0%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”369″ img_width=”656″ mime_type=”image/webp” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/911380ed3e9b448c842f5cedabe88d49~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;lk3s=953192f4&amp;x-expires=1762854597&amp;x-signature=4gypTR%2BJKK2sfK1WQZ4oEzrZbP0%3D” style=”cursor:zoom-in;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px auto 8px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;border-radius:4px;height:auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/10354e84625e4f60be421f5e0deb4901″ />
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<p data-track=”2″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>沈政男今天（4日）在臉書指出，林岱樺日前在高雄岡山的造勢聲勢很好，但種種媒體民調都顯示，她已經不是民進黨內高雄市長候選人的第一領先者；而林岱樺當天被問到現在的民調如何？她回答：「現在位居領先群」。</span></p>

<p data-track=”3″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>沈政男分析，林岱樺堅持參加初選，而林佳龍等所謂「正國會」派系給予支持，即使知道有不少綠營支持者反彈，為什麼民進黨中央不介入？原因就是林岱樺顯然不會代表民進黨選高雄市，既然如此，讓她走完初選過程，心服口服，對於初選後的整合會有幫助。</span></p>

<p data-track=”4″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>沈政男指出，林岱樺已說&ldquo;不會脫黨參選&rdquo;，前提是初選公平，其中牽扯到民調機制，問題出在&ldquo;林岱樺竟然誤解了民調方法&rdquo;，才會在造勢會上說&ldquo;接到民調可說自己20幾歲，因為年輕人有加權&rdquo;。然而，民進黨中央有解釋，正是因為抽樣比較少，會進行人口學上的加乘，看起來就是一般民調的統計校正流程，不是年輕人回答支持就1票算2票的意思。</span></p>

<p data-track=”5″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>從民調分析，沈政男指民調顯示，目前位居民進黨高雄市長初選第一領先的是賴瑞隆，「請問有人知道他嗎？」說穿了就是高雄市的綠營二軍，但因為林岱樺出事了，其他2人也沒有很強，或者有些爭議，於是就竄上來了。他並以鏡報與TVBS日前公佈的民調為例，賴瑞隆與柯志恩幾乎打平，或者賴瑞隆微幅領先，而比起2022，陳其邁一面倒的狀況，顯然柯志恩這次形勢大好，但柯志恩有沒有足夠的爆發力，可以喚醒一看到賴瑞隆就想要打瞌睡的高雄選民？則值得觀察。</span></p>

<p data-track=”6″ style=”font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:normal;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;text-align:justify;”><span dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing:border-box; vertical-align:inherit”>沈政男提到，柯志恩對於近日的所謂民進黨內民調顯示，在黨內多人比較裡，賴瑞隆領先邱議瑩20%，難以置信，但其實這就是合理的數據，因為這是黨內多人比較，只能選1人，第一與最後的差距就會有那麼多，而前一陣子的鏡報民調也顯示10%以上的差距。</span></p>

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