<p style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;”> </p>
<div class=”pgc-img” style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><img alt=”" class=”syl-page-img” data-src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/14bc1f51452c410c8c1d485d91995f4f~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1761462258&x-signature=43BWfRHKy51LSwM33UyHuoM2sQ8%3D” image_type=”1″ img_height=”484″ img_width=”1062″ mime_type=”image/png” src=”https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/14bc1f51452c410c8c1d485d91995f4f~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1761462258&x-signature=43BWfRHKy51LSwM33UyHuoM2sQ8%3D” style=”cursor: zoom-in; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; margin: 0px auto 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; display: block; border-radius: 4px; height: auto;” title=”" web_uri=”tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/32bedf6ed001425f9eb9df3160835e8a” />
<p class=”pgc-img-caption” style=”box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px !important;”> </p>
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<p data-track=”16″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>國民黨主席選舉今（18）日結果將會出爐。台灣媒體人黃揚明分析表示，若當選人得票率低於5成，但大於朱立倫2021年當選票率的45.78%，選後整合不難。但他也認為，若當選人得票率低於40%，國民黨新任主席將形同“當選即跛腳”，國民黨內分裂可能性極高。</font></p>
<p data-track=”15″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>黃揚明表示，他簡單分析國民黨主席當選人得票率的高低因素，本屆有6人角逐，在2強1中3弱的態勢下，其中任一人得票率過半的機率不高。他指出，若當選人得票率能過5成，將是強勢主席，選前的風風雨雨就能快速整合修補。</font></p>
<p data-track=”14″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>黃揚明也進一步表示，當選人得票率低於5成，但大於朱立倫2021年當選票率的45.78%，選後整合也不難。但他認為，若當選人得票率低於朱立倫2021年當選得票率，但高於40%，選後整合會較艱辛，未來國民黨內人事佈局、新任主席當選人如何修補裂痕至關重要。他直言，如果選人得票率低於40%，國民黨新任主席將形同當選即跛腳，國民黨內分裂可能性極高。</font></p>
<p data-track=”13″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>據了解，本次國民黨主席改選共有6人完成登記，依號次分別為張亞中、蔡志弘、羅智強、郝龍斌、鄭麗文與卓伯源。根據國民黨部統計，選舉人數為33萬1,410人，其中65歲以上黨員逾22萬人。</font></p>
<p data-track=”12″ style=”font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0px !important;”><font dir=”auto” style=”box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: inherit;”>由於這次選情激烈，加上今天天氣晴朗，整體投票率預估比2021年的50.71%還高，可能落在54%到56%之間，大概拿到4成選票能夠勝出黨魁選舉。</font><a href=”https://lion19.com/” style=”text-align: left; background-color: transparent;”><span class=”15″ style=”color:rgb(255, 0, 0); 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