日別アーカイブ: 2016年4月11日

The Boston Red Sox went into Sunday’s series finale against Toronto having scored 28 runs over their past four games, including back-to-back comeback wins over the Blue Jays. But the Blue Jays, who started season as the American League front-runners just ahead of the Red Sox, weren’t about to let Boston sweep them so easily. Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada was dealing from the start, ending his day with five hits allowed, eight strikeouts and just two walks over seven scoreless innings. Steven Wright was similarly impressive, but as it turned out, a rough first inning, during which he gave up two runs (one earned), was all the Jays needed. Toronto’s bullpen kept Boston off the board in the eighth and ninth innings, with closer Roberto Osuna striking out the side for the save. The Blue Jays’ pitching, along with some heads-up defense, kept the Red Sox off the board through nine, en route to a 3-0 loss for Boston. Here are some more notes from Boston’s loss Sunday. Click to read the Red Sox Wrap>> — Dustin Pedroia almost scored in the third inning on a Xander Bogaerts double, but a perfectly executed relay by the Blue Jays killed any chance at a rally. Jose Bautista collected Bogaerts’ hit in right field and sent it to Ryan Goins, whose throw to catcher Russell Martin was perfect to nab Pedroia at the plate.

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— Wright didn’t strike out 10 batters, but his start Sunday certainly was comparable to David Price’s Opening Day gem. The knuckleballer actually has the lowest ERA and longest start after the first pass through the rotation after 6 2/3 innings of work with two runs (one earned), three walks and five strikeouts, good for a 1.35 ERA. — Hanley Ramirez said he felt “back home” in the infield, and it’s been showing at the plate. Ramirez was the bright spot in the Red Sox’s unproductive day, going 3-for-4 with a double. Boston has played just five games, but Ramirez is the best hitter so far, batting .455 (10-for-22) with a 1.205 OPS. — Again, it’s still extremely early in the 2016 season, but Mookie Betts can’t seem to find his swing yet. The Red Sox’s leadoff hitter went 2-for-5 with a home run on Opening Day, but he has struggled since then, going 1-for-18 in his next four games and lowering his average to .130. — Brock Holt was out of Boston’s lineup Sunday and wasn’t available to pinch hit after fouling a ball off his foot the previous day. X-rays came back negative, and the Red Sox utility man said he’d probably be good to go Monday.

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A top adviser to the Chinese government has warned that Beijing risks a currency blow-up akin to Britain’s traumatic ordeal in 1992, if it continues trying to defend its exchange rate peg amid a deepening deflation crisis.

Yu Hongding, a director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China is caught in two concurrent “deflationary spirals” that are feeding on the other. A major devaluation and a blast of well-targeted fiscal stimulus will be needed to break out of the trap.

“They must stop intervening on the exchange market. China needs to devalue by 15pc. They are creating conditions for speculators,” he told the Daily Telegraph, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum of global policymakers on Lake Como.

Prof Yu, a former rate-setter for the central bank (PBOC) and currently a member of the national planning committee, said the government is making a serious mistake in trying to defend the yuan by burning through foreign exchange reserves, already down to $3.2 trillion from $4 trillion in mid-2014.

He warned that the slowdown in capital outlows in March may prove fleeting. “Reserves will continue to fall until we devalue. Once we get towards $2 trillion the markets will start to panic. They won’t believe that the government can control it any longer,” he said.

Reserves have fallen by $800bn to $3.2 trillion as capital leaks out of China CREDIT:FATHOM

Prof Yu said Beijing had been caught off guard by the relentless slowdown over the last five years. “In 2011 we thought the economy would stabilize, and we thought the same thing in 2012, and again in 2013, and it continued to slide,” he said.

It is far from clear whether the world could handle a 15pc devaluation given the vast scale of Chinese overcapacity, or that the US Treasury and Congress would tolerate such a move.

Fears of uncontrollable capital flight and a yuan devaluation were key reasons for the plunge in global equity markets earlier this year, and are clearly what prompted the US Federal Reserve to delay rate rises.

The fate of China’s currency has become the most neuralgic issue in global finance. One worry is that a sharp drop in the yuan would set off a second round of ‘currency wars’ across East Asia, transmitting a deflationary shock through the international system as cheap Asian exports flooded into Western markets.

Prof Yu’s life is a remarkable story of achievement in Maoist China. He worked for ten years in a machine factory, wrestling with Marx’s Das Kapital at night before discovering western economics. He devoured Paul Samuelson’s classic text, ‘Foundations of Economic Analysis’, first in a Chinese translation and then in the original after teaching himself English, no easy feat in the Cultural Revolution.

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He went onto to earn a doctorate at Oxford University, and was still in England when sterling was blown out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992. He still recalls the exact details of the debacle, including the two desperate rate rises by the Bank of England in a single day. “The British experience is very interesting for us,” he said.

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